Spatiotemporal analysis of syphilis cases reported in ShangHai,2012-2021
Objective This study aims to understand the trends and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of syphilis incidence in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021,in order to provide scientific evidence for improving syphilis prevention and control strategies in this city.Methods Data on syphilis cases reported in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021 were analyzed using R language software for global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Spatiotemporal scan analysis was conducted using SaTScan software.Results The reported syphilis incidence in Shanghai decreased from 57.15/100 000 in 2012 to 41.49/100 000 in 2021,with an average annual decrease of 3.37％.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed statistically significant Moran's I values for all years from 2012 to 2021,indicating a clear spatial clustering pattern in the distribution of syphilis cases in Shanghai.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified high-high clusters(hot-spots)primarily located in the downtown and the urban marginal areas from 2012 to 2021,while the low-low clusters(cold-spots)were scattered in the northern regions of the city.Spatiotemporal cluster analysis identified 10 temporal clusters and 18 hot-spots of syphilis incidence in Shanghai from 2012 to 2021.Conclusions The overall syphilis incidence in Shanghai showed a decreasing trend from 2012 to 2021.The identified hot spots should be the focus of syphilis surveillance,early warning,education and intervention among high-risk populations.
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