Disease burden and trends of HIV/AIDS attributable to unsafe sexual behavior among the elderly in China,1992-2021
Objective To analyze disease burden among the elderly in China from 1992 to 2021,attributable to unsafe sexual practices related to HIV/AIDS,identify trends,and project future impacts.This study aims to inform prevention and control strategies for this demographic.Methods Utilizing the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,this study assessed the disease burden through standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rates linked to unsafe sexual behaviors among elderly Chinese.A comparative analysis was conducted globally and across regions with varying Socio-Demographic Index(SDI)levels.Trends were analyzed using Joinpoint regression,while mortality risk was examined through an age-period-cohort(APC)model.Projections for mortality and DALY rates were generated using the Bayesian age-period cohort(BAPC)model.Results In 2021,standardized mortality and DALY rates among elderly Chinese due to unsafe sexual practices were lower than the global average and those of regions with medium to low SDI,but higher than in regions with high to high-medium SDI.Males showed higher rates(3.40/100 000 for standardized mortality,96.75/100 000 for standardized DALYs)compared to females(1.32/100 000 for standardized mortality,40.77/100 000 for standardized DALYs).From 1992 to 2021,both standardized mortality and DALY rates exhibited an upward trend(AAPC standardized mortality=6.78％,P＜0.001;AAPC standardized DALY rates=7.06％,P＜0.001),with the most rapid increases observed in China compared to other SDI regions.The APC model revealed age,period,and cohort effects,indicating increasing mortality risk with advancing age,periods,and successive birth cohorts.Projections suggest that standardized mortality rates for elderly males attributable to unsafe sexual behavior will decrease from 3.40/100 000 in 2022 to 3.12/100 000 by 2030,and for females from 1.32/100 000 to 0.86/100 000;while the standardized DALY rates for males will decline from 96.75/100000 to 84.79/100,000,and from 40.77/100 000 to 25.27/100 000 for females.Conclusions From 1992 to 2021,the burden of disease among the elderly in China attributable to unsafe sexual practices increased,with significant age,period,and cohort influences,particularly affecting males more than females.Comprehensive,tailored prevention and control measures are essential.Projections for 2022 to 2030 indicate a potential decline in this burden.
HIV/AIDSunsafe sexual behaviordisease burdenmortalitydisability-adjusted life years(DALY)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
