Drought Trend Analysis in Xuanwei Based on Gray, Catastrophe Theory GM(1,1)
Based on the precipitation statistical dates from 1980 to 2012 in Xuanwei,the time distribution of drought in the region was an-alyzed.The gray catastrophe prediction model GM (1,1)was established,The forecast is credible through residual test and the back-check error method checking.Which can be used for drought and water supply prediction in Xuanwei area. The predictions show that there will be drought during 2014-2015 and 2019-2020.
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
