首页|Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

Origin Distribution Patterns and Floating Population Modeling: Yiwu City as a Destination

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Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu's pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattem excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distahce,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.

floating populationorigin distribution visualizationspatial regression modelYiwu CityGIS

LI Hongsheng、WANG Yingjie、HAN Jiafu

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State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaYouth Science Funds of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Chinese Academy of SciencesNational Key Technology R & D Program of China

41001314KA110401012012BAI32B07

2012

10.1007/s11769-012-0534-0

中国地理科学(英文版)
中国科学院长春地理研究所

中国地理科学(英文版)

CSCDSCI
影响因子：0.754
ISSN：1002-0063
年,卷(期)：2012.22(3)
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