首页|Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Ter-restrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

Historical Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use and Ter-restrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in China

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Terrestrial carbon storage(CS)plays a crucial role in achieving carbon balance and mitigating global climate change.This study employs the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways(SSPs-RCPs)published by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)and incorporates the Policy Control Scenario(PCS)regulated by China's land manage-ment policies.The Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model is employed to generate a 1 km resolution land use/cover change(LUCC)dataset for China in 2030 and 2060.Based on the carbon density dataset of China's terrestrial ecosystems,the study analyses CS changes and their relationship with land use changes spanning from 1990 to 2060.The findings indicate that the quantitative changes in land use in China from 1990 to 2020 are characterised by a reduction in the area proportion of cropland and grassland,along with an in-crease in the impervious surface and forest area.This changing trend is projected to continue under the PCS from 2020 to 2060.Under the SSPs-RCPs scenario,the proportion of cropland and impervious surface predominantly increases,while the proportions of forest and grassland continuously decrease.Carbon loss in China's carbon storage from 1990 to 2020 amounted to 0.53 x 1012kg,primarily due to the reduced area of cropland and grassland.In the SSPs-RCPs scenario,more significant carbon loss occurs,reaching a peak of 8.07 x 1012kg in the SSP4-RCP3.4 scenario.Carbon loss is mainly concentrated in the southeastern coastal area and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region of China,with urbanisation and deforestation identified as the primary drivers.In the future,it is advisable to en-hance the protection of forests and grassland while stabilising cropland areas and improving the intensity of urban land.These research findings offer valuable data support for China's land management policy,land space optimisation,and the achievement of dual-carbon targets.

land use changeFuture Land Use Simulation(FLUS)modelcarbon storagecarbon density datasetland use scenarioChina

AN Yue、TAN Xuelan、REN Hui、LI Yinqi、ZHOU Zhou

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College of Resources,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China

School of Geographic Science,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金湖南省自然科学基金Philosophy and Social Science Fund Project of Hunan Province

41971219415711682020JJ437218ZDB015

2024

10.1007/s11769-024-1424-y

中国地理科学(英文版)
中国科学院长春地理研究所

中国地理科学(英文版)

CSTPCD
影响因子：0.754
ISSN：1002-0063
年,卷(期)：2024.34(3)
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