碳达峰背景下中国电力行业碳排放因素和脱钩效应
Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak
李旭东 1谭青博 2赵浩辰 1乔宁 3刘力纬 4谭彩霞 1谭忠富1
作者信息
- 1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京 102206
- 2. 俄罗斯乌拉尔联邦大学,俄罗斯叶卡捷琳堡 620002
- 3. 国网宁夏电力公司,宁夏银川 750001
- 4. 对外经济贸易大学国际商学院,北京 100029
- 折叠
摘要
探求电力行业CO2 排放驱动因素和脱钩效应既能促进"双碳"目标实现,也有利于改善中国环境总体质量,极具现实意义.对 2004-2020 年中国电力行业CO2 排放量进行测算,并采用LMDI模型和Tapio脱钩模型对电力行业CO2 排放的驱动因素和脱钩状态进行研究,在此基础上基于SSA-LSSVM预测模型对中国电力行业 2021-2030 年CO2 排放量和脱钩状态进行预测分析.研究结果表明:1)电力行业CO2排放影响因素中,经济增长是主要因素,电力生产结构效应和电力生产强度效应对电力行业CO2 排放量起到明显的抑制作用;2)整个研究期内,电力行业CO2 排放量与经济增长处于弱脱钩状态;3)从电力行业CO2 排放预测值来看,基准情景、低碳情景、强低碳情景下电力行业CO2 排放量均呈现上升趋势,2022-2030 年电力行业CO2 排放与经济增长均处于弱脱钩状态.基于研究结果,为降低中国电力行业CO2 排放量,建议转变经济增长方式,实现经济绿色低碳增长;发展清洁能源,构建新型电力系统;推进低碳技术创新,实现电力行碳排放脱钩.
Abstract
It is of great practical significance to explore the driving factors and decoupling effects of CO2 emissions in electric power industry,which can not only promote the realization of"dual carbon"goal,but also improve the overall environmental quality in China.In this paper,the CO2 emissions of China's electric power industry from 2004 to 2020 are estimated,and the driving factors and decoupling status of CO2 emissions of the electric power industry are studied with the LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model.On this basis,the CO2 emissions and the decoupling status of the electric power industry during 2021-2030 were analyzed based on the SSA-LSSVM prediction model.The results show that:(1)the economic growth is the main factor of CO2 emission growth in the electric power industry,and the effects of power production structure and power production intensity have an obvious inhibition effects on CO2 emissions;(2)during the whole study period,the CO2 emissions from the power industry was in a weak decoupling status from economic growth;(3)from the predicted value of CO2 emissions from the electric power industry,the CO2 emissions from the electric power industry show an upward trend under the baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario and strong low-carbon scenario,and the CO2 emissions from the electric power industry is in a weak decoupling status from economic growth during 2022-2030.Based on the research results,in order to reduce the CO2 emissions of China's electric power industry,it is proposed to change the economic growth mode to achieve the green and low-carbon economic growth,to develop clean energy to build a new power system,to promote low-carbon technology innovation to realize the decoupling of carbon emissions of electric power industry.
关键词
CO2排放/LMDI模型/电力行业/Tapio脱钩Key words
CO2 emissions/LMDI model/electric power industry/Tapio decoupling引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72174062)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据