基于生产模拟的受端电网新能源发展场景研究
Research on Development Scenario of Renewable Energy in Receiving-End Power Grid Based on Production Simulation
王帅 1黄越辉 1聂元弘 2刘思扬1
作者信息
- 1. 可再生能源并网全国重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京 100192
- 2. 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,安徽合肥 230061
- 折叠
摘要
"双碳"目标驱动下,受端电网新能源大规模并网,加之外来电力比重加大,电力平衡难度增加,受端电网实现清洁替代面临多重困难.基于实际运行数据,分析了新能源低出力特性及其与负荷的匹配特性,总结了高比例新能源电力系统面临的关键问题.在此基础上,建立电力系统时序生产模拟模型,基于 2030 年预测数据的标幺化,设计 2060 年案例场景,量化分析典型受端省级电网的新能源、煤电和调节资源的配置问题,以及不同新能源发展场景下实现清洁替代的方案,并提出相关措施和建议.
Abstract
Driven by the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality",the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the receiving-end power grid,coupled with the increasing proportion of external electricity,has made it more difficult to balance electricity and achieve clean substitution in the receiving-end power grid.Based on actual operating data,the low output characteristics of renewable energy and its matching characteristics with load were analyzed,and the key issues faced by high-proportion renewable energy power systems were summarized.On this basis,a time series production simulation model for the power system was established,and the scenario for the 2060 case was designed based on the standardization of the 2030 forecast data.Quantitative analysis was conducted on the allocation of renewable energy,coal-fired power,and flexible resources in typical provincial receiving-end power grids,as well as the implementation of clean substitution solutions in different renewable energy development scenarios,and relevant measures and suggestions were proposed.
关键词
新能源/时序生产模拟/标幺化/调节资源/碳中和Key words
renewable energy/time series production simulation/standardization/flexible resources/carbon neutrality引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(1300-202155460A-0-0-00)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
维普
万方数据