中国电力2024,Vol.57Issue(10) :199-207.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

近年中国全社会用电量与经济增速差距分析及展望

Analysis and Prospect of Gap Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China in Recent Years

王向 谭显东 张成龙 刘青 张一凡
中国电力2024,Vol.57Issue(10) :199-207.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

近年中国全社会用电量与经济增速差距分析及展望

Analysis and Prospect of Gap Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China in Recent Years

王向 1谭显东 1张成龙 1刘青 1张一凡1
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作者信息

  • 1. 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 102209
  • 折叠

摘要

2020-2023 年,中国全社会用电增速持续高于经济增速,引起广泛社会关注.通过构建体现行业与居民生活统计差异的用电增速与经济增速差距解析模型,实现全面解析用电增速高于经济增速的动因.经测算发现,2020-2023 年,用电增速持续高于经济增速,主要是受电气化、数字化、智能化等影响,第二产业用电增速高于其增加值增速;制造业中高耗能行业的影响最大,同时电气机械和器材制造业、计算机/通信和其他电子设备制造业等装备制造业的影响在增强;2022 年气温的影响较为突出.综合研判,2030年前中国用电增速总体上仍将高于经济增速,即电力消费弹性系数仍将大于 1.

Abstract

From 2020 to 2023,electricity consumption in China was higher than the economic growth,causing widespread concern and doubts in society.By building an analytical model for the gap between electricity consumption and economic growth that reflected the statistical difference between industries and residents'lives,the reasons why electricity consumption was higher than economic growth were analyzed comprehensively.It was found that from 2020 to 2023,electricity consumption continued to be higher than economic growth,mainly due to the impact of electrification,digitalization,and intelligence.In addition,electricity consumption in the secondary industry was higher than the growth rate of its added value.High energy consumption sectors in the manufacturing industry had the greatest impact,while the impact of equipment manufacturing,such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing,computer/communications,and other electronic equipment manufacturing,was intensifying.The influence of temperature in 2022 was more prominent.It was generally expected that China's electricity consumption would still be higher than economic growth before 2030,or in other words,the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption would still be greater than 1.

关键词

用电量/经济/增速/差距分析

Key words

electricity consumption/economy/growth rate/gap analysis

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基金项目

国家电网有限公司科技项目(5108-202218280A-2-429-XG)

出版年

2024
中国电力
国网能源研究院 中国电机工程学会

中国电力

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.463
ISSN:1004-9649
参考文献量26
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