中国电力2024,Vol.57Issue(12) :120-131.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308035

基于熵权-德尔菲法的源网荷储多能互补项目布局评估方法

A Layout Evaluation Method for Source-Network-Load-Storage and Multi-energy Complementary Projects Based on Entropy Weight and Delphi Method

康俊杰 赵春阳 周国鹏 赵良
中国电力2024,Vol.57Issue(12) :120-131.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202308035

基于熵权-德尔菲法的源网荷储多能互补项目布局评估方法

A Layout Evaluation Method for Source-Network-Load-Storage and Multi-energy Complementary Projects Based on Entropy Weight and Delphi Method

康俊杰 1赵春阳 1周国鹏 1赵良1
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作者信息

  • 1. 中国华能集团有限公司能源研究院,北京 100031
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摘要

源网荷储一体化和多能互补对于加快新型电力系统建设,实现电力系统高质量发展,提高多种能源协调互济能力,推动中国能源绿色低碳转型和经济社会发展有重要意义.首先,基于分析中国源网荷储一体化和多能互补资源要素、国家发展战略、用电负荷、电价价格、新能源消纳水平、调节能力建设需求等因素,建立了主客观组合赋权的评估体系.然后,运用熵权法确定"一体化"多种发展路线影响因素的客观权重,同时也运用德尔菲法确定客观权重,经过融合计算得出综合权重.最后,根据影响因素分值和权重对各种发展路线进行综合评分,划分优先等级,得到中国各省(区、市)"一体化"项目建设优先顺序,为各省(区、市)布局"一体化"项目提供技术参考.

Abstract

Source-network-load-storage integration and multi-energy complementary is of great significance for accelerating the construction of new power systems,achieving high-quality development of the power system,improving the coordination and mutual aid ability of multiple energy sources,and promoting China's green and low-carbon energy transformation and economic and social development.Firstly,based on an analysis of such factors as the national resource elements for integration and complementary,national development strategy,load development,electricity price level,new energy consumption conditions and regulatory capacity demand,a subjective and objective combination weighting evaluation system is established.And then,the entropy weight method is used to determine the objective weights of the influencing factors for each development route of integration,and the Delphi method is used to determine the objective weights.Through fusion calculation,the comprehensive weights of the influencing factors are obtained.Based on the scores and weights of the influencing factors,every development route is scored,and the development priority levels are divided.Finally,the construction priority order for integration projects in all provinces across the country is obtained,which can provide a technical support for the development of the integration projects in all provinces.

关键词

源网荷储一体化/多能互补/发展影响因素/评估体系/全国布局

Key words

source-network-load-storage integration/multi-energy complementary/development influencing factor/evaluation system/national layout

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出版年

2024
中国电力
国网能源研究院 中国电机工程学会

中国电力

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.463
ISSN:1004-9649
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