R/S Fractal Characteristics and Activity Analysis of Afghanistan Earthquake
Earthquake occurrence exhibits nonlinear characteristics,and fractal theory effectively describes the temporal and spatial distribution and evolution of earthquakes.Using R/S analysis,this paper determines the fractal characteristics of the major seismic belts in Afghanistan and employs the ARIMA model to predict the annual maximum magnitude of the Hindu-Kush seismic belt.The Hurst index of the Hindu-Kush seismic belt is 0.9125,indicating a seismic activity memory period of 8 years.For the Sulaiman seismic belt,the Hurst index is 0.7281,with a memory period of 9 years.The variation trends of seismic activity in both the Hindu-Kush and Sulaiman seismic zones align with historical patterns,though the trend continuity is more pronounced in the Hindu-Kush zone.According to the ARIMA model,the predicted maximum annual magnitudes for the Hindu-Kush seismic belt from 2022 to 2026 are Mb6.2,Mb6.1,Mb5.8,Mb5.8,and Mb6.1,respectively.
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