渤海及邻区地震活动的周期性特征及其在地震预测中的应用
Periodic Characteristics of Earthquake Activity in the Bohai Sea and Surrounding Areas and Its Implications for Earthquake Prediction
沙海军 1吕悦军 1彭艳菊 1谢卓娟 1修立伟1
作者信息
- 1. 应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京 100085;复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100085
- 折叠
摘要
本研究使用最大熵谱分析方法对渤海及邻区的历史地震资料进行统计分析,揭示该地区地震活动的周期性特征.研究结果显示,渤海及邻区的地震序列具有一定的周期性特征,其优势周期分布在29～36a之间;自公元1517年以来可划分为16个地震活动期,目前,该地区处于地震平静期的中期.此外,对各个地震期内的地震次数进行统计分析,估算了地震活动的平均水平.
Abstract
Maximum entropy spectral analysis is applied to historic earthquake data from the Bohai Sea and its adjacent areas to statistically analyze and identify the periodic characteristics of seismic activity in the region.The results indicate that seismic activity in this area exhibits quasi-periodic behavior,with a dominant period ranging from 29a to 36a.Since 1517 AD,the region can be divided into 16 seismic periods,with the current period identified as a mid-term phase of seismic quiescence.The average seismicity level is estimated through statistical analysis of earthquake frequencies within each seismic period,providing valuable insights into the long-term patterns of seismic activity in the Bohai Sea region.
关键词
渤海/地震活动/周期性/最大熵谱分析/地震预测Key words
The Bohai Sea/Earthquake activity/Periodicity/Maximum entropy spectral analysis/Earthquake prediction引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据