首页|Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

Long-term earthquake predictionChinese mainlandActive tectonic block

Zhigang Shao、Yanqiang Wu、Lingyun Ji、Faqi Diao、Fuqiang Shi、Yujiang Li、Feng Long、Hui Zhang、Wuxing Wang、Wenxin Wei、Peng Wang、Xiaoxia Liu、Qi Liu、Zhengyang Pan、Xiaofei Yin、Yue Liu、Wei Feng、Zhenyu Zou、Jia Cheng、Renqi Lu、Yueren Xu、Xi Li

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Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting,Beijing,100036,China

The First Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Tianjin,300180,China

The Second Monitoring and Application Center,China Earthquake Administration,Xi'an,710054,China

China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan,430074,China

Shaanxi Earthquake Agency,Xi'an,710068,China

National Institute of Natural Hazards,Beijing,100085,China

Sichuan Earthquake Administration,Chengdu,610044,China

Gansu Earthquake Agency,Lanzhou,730000,China

Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing,100029,China

Yunnan University,Kunming,650091,China

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National Key R&D Program of China

2017YFC1500501

2023

地震研究进展(英文)
中国地震局

地震研究进展(英文)

CSCD北大核心
影响因子：0.032
ISSN：2096-9996
年,卷(期)：2023.3(1)
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