Burden analysis and model prediction of type 1 diabetes mellitus in Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019
Objective To analyze the disease burden of type 1 diabetes(T1DM)among Chinese children and adolescents from 1990 to 2019,and to predict its future trend,so as to provide reference for the prevention and control of disease burden caused by T1DM in children and adolescents.Methods Data on the incidence rate,prevalence rate,mortality rate,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)attributed to T1DM among individuals aged under 20 years from 1990 to 2019 were retrieved from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine the trends in these parameters.Furthermore,Grey Prediction Model GM(1,1)was utilized to forecast the disease burden for the upcoming 20 years.Results In 2019,the incidence rate,the prevalence rate and the mortality rate of T1DM among children and adolescents in China was 5.22/105,49.17/105,and 0.07/105,respectively,and the DALY rate was 7.82/105,which were all lower than the global average.In 2019,the incidence and mortality rates of T1DM among male children and adolescents in China were higher than those of females,while the DALYs rate was lower than that of females.Notably,within the age group of 5-9 years old,the incidence rate for T1DM was the highest at 7.30/105,and the mortality rate was highest among children under 1 year old,reaching 0.33/105.The Joinpoint regression model revealed an upward trend in the incidence and prevalence rates of T1DM among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2019,with average annual percentage changes(AAPC)of 1.44％ and 1.05％ ,respectively.Conversely,the mortality rate and DALY rate exhibited a significantly decreasing trend(P＜0.05),with AAPCs of-4.30％ and-3.45％ ,respectively.The forecasted outcomes indicated a notable increase in the incidence and prevalence rates of T1DM among Chinese children and adolescents from 2020 to 2039.Conclusions The incidence and prevalence rates of T1DM among children and adolescents in China have shown an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.It is essential to continue implementing proactive preventive measures to alleviate the disease burden.
type 1 diabetes mellitusdisease burdenpredictive modelchildren and adolescents
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
