Epidemiological investigation and prediction model construction of malocclusion in children aged 3-14 in Shijiazhuang City
Objective To investigate the prevalence of malocclusion among children aged 3-14 years in Shijiazhuang City,and to construct a predictive model for malocclusion.Methods Using cluster sampling,a total of 6 591 children aged 3-14 years from kindergartens,primary schools,and junior high schools in eight districts of Shijiazhuang City were selected as subjects for examination of dental development from May to October 2023.Children were divided into malocclusion and normal groups.Univariate analysis were conducted on information collected regarding children's demographic data,feeding practices,dietary habits,and presence of oral maladaptive behaviors.Multivariate analysis identified factors influencing malocclusion,based on which a predictive model was developed.The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the area under the ROC curve(AUC),calibration curves,and decision curves.Results Among the 6 591 children surveyed,4 342 cases of malocclusion were identified,yielding a prevalence rate of 65.88％.The primary types of malocclusion were deep overbite,deep overjet,and crowded teeth,with rates of 26.61％,19.60％,and 15.73％,respectively.Logistic regression analysis revealed that risk factors for malocclusion in children aged 3-14 years included a family history of malocclusion,bottle-feeding duration＞12 months,high food fineness,lip-sucking,object-biting,unilateral chewing,mouth breathing,and presence of dental caries(P＜0.05).Internal validation showed an AUC of 0.818(95％CI:0.763-0.873),good calibration curve fit,and a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test(x2=9.904,P=0.275).The prediction model demonstrated satisfactory net benefit rates when the threshold probability ranged from 3％to 81％.Conclusion A nomogram constructed based on the presence or absence of a family history of malocclusion,bottle-feeding duration,food fineness,and oral maladaptive behaviors(lip-sucking,object-biting,unilateral chewing,mouth breathing),as well as the presence or absence of dental caries,can predict the risk of malocclusion occurrence reasonably well among children aged 3-14 years in Shijiazhuang City.
malocclusionepidemiological investigationchildren aged 3-14prediction model
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