Analysis of influencing factors and construction of prediction model for the outcome of vaginal trial of labor in primipara
Objective To explore the influencing factors on the outcome of vaginal trial of labor in primipara,and build a prediction model based on the influencing factors.Methods A retrospective case-control study was conducted on 626 cases of parturients with abnormal delivery(including vaginal operation and cesarean section)as the case group and normal delivery as the control group.The relevant factors that may affect the trial production outcome were taken as independent variables,and the trial production outcome was taken as dependent variable.Logistic regression analysis was performed on the variables with statistical significance,and a prediction model was built according to the Logistic regression results.Results Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that premature rupture of membranes,analgesia,pre-labor body mass index,uterine height,umbilical cord around neck,fetal head circumference and fetal abdominal circumference were independent risk factors for abnormal delivery(OR＞1,P＜0.05),and maternal height and cervical Bishop score were independent protective factors for abnormal delivery(OR＜1,P＜0.05).According to the partial regression coefficient,the model equation was constructed,AUC of the model predicted the occurrence of abnormal parturiency was 0.839(95％CI:0.8018～0.8754).The model passed the Homer-Lemeshow test(x2=0.212,P=0.121),and had good differentiation and calibration degree.Conclusions There are many factors affecting the occurrence of abnormal delivery in primipara.The prediction model based on independent factors can predict the occurrence of abnormal delivery in primipara,and can be used for prenatal evaluation.
primiparatrial of laboroutcomesrisk factorsprediction model
万方数据
维普
