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山洪灾害雨量预警指标分析方法评述与展望

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
山洪灾害预警指标是山洪灾害预报预警的核心,我国现阶段主要采用经验法和水位流量反推法确定雨量预警指标,并逐步推广应用复合预警指标法和动态临界雨量法.在系统阐述国内外常用雨量预警指标分析方法及其特点基础上,针对山洪灾害预警指标分析中需考虑的降雨时空分布变化、高含砂水流、泥石流及其他不确定因素影响问题,提出今后雨量预警指标研究方向.
Review and outlook on the analysis methods of rainfall warning indicators for flash flood early warning
The early warning thresholds for flash flood disasters serve as the cornerstone of flash flood prediction and early warning systems.Currently,China predominantly relies on empirical methods and water stage-discharge backward extrapolation method to establish rainfall thresholds for early warnings.Additionally,there is a gradual shift towards adopting composite threshold and dynamic critical threshold approaches.In light of a comprehensive assessment of commonly used rainfall threshold analysis methods both in China and abroad,future research should prioritize modifying existing techniques.Specifically,attention should be directed towards accounting for the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall events,high-concentrated sediment flow,debris flow,and other uncertain factors.

flash flood disasterswarning thresholdwater stage-discharge backward extrapolation methoddynamic critical rainfall threshold methoduncertain factors

孙东亚、翟晓燕、郭一君、田壮显

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中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京 100038

山洪灾害 预警指标 水位流量反推法 动态临界雨量法 不确定因素

国家自然科学基金重点项目国家自然科学基金面上项目

5223900642171047

2024

10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024128

中国防汛抗旱
中国水利学会

中国防汛抗旱

影响因子：0.286
ISSN：1673-9264
年,卷(期)：2024.34(5)
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