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基于Copula函数的宿迁市区域暴雨和外河水位遭遇组合分析

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在系统化全域推进海绵城市建设背景下,为充分发挥河湖水系等海绵体的作用,江苏宿迁市开展了防洪、排涝不同系统间的衔接研究,对区域暴雨和外河水位进行遭遇组合分析.选取宿迁市老城区为研究区域,通过对比不同Copula函数对区域暴雨和外河水位遭遇组合分析情况,选择拟合精度最高的GH Copula函数进行计算分析,计算不同设计暴雨条件下遭遇概率最大的外河水位.结果表明:2 年一遇设计暴雨遭遇 18.6~18.7 m外河水位概率最大,3年一遇设计暴雨遭遇 18.9~19.0 m外河水位概率最大,5 年一遇设计暴雨遭遇 19.0~19.1 m外河水位概率最大.研究成果可帮助实现城市排涝—防洪的有效衔接,对提升城市水系统的整体优化和协同发展具有重要意义,以期为宿迁市系统化海绵城市建设提供科学参考.
Combination analysis of regional rainstorm and outer river level encounter in Suqian City based on Copula function
Under the background of systematically promoting the construction of sponge city in the whole Suqian City of Jiangsu Province,in order to give full play to the role of spongy bodies such as river and lake systems,Suqian City has carried out a study on the connection between different flood control and drainage systems,and conducted a combination analysis of regional rainstorm and outer river level.The old urban area of Suqian City was selected as the research area.The GH Copula function with the highest fitting accuracy was selected for the combination analysis of regional rainstorm and outer river level encounter in Suqian City,and the outer river level with the greatest probability of encounter under different design rainstorm conditions was calculated.The results show that the maximum probability of a 2-year design rainstorm encountering a river level of 18.6~18.7 m,the maximum probability of a 3-year design rainstorm encountering a river level of 18.9~19.0 m,and the maximum probability of a 5-year design rainstorm encountering a river level of 19.0~19.1 m.The research results can help realize the effective connection of urban drainage and flood control,which is of great significance to improve the overall optimization and collaborative development of urban water systems,and provides scientific reference for the construction of systematic sponge city in Suqian City.

Copula functionfrequency analysisregional rainstormouter river levelfrequency combinationSuqian City

刘俊、吴天航、周悦、张良、冯皓天

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河海大学水文水资源学院,南京 210098

宿迁市水利局,宿迁 223800

Copula函数 频率分析 区域暴雨 外河水位 组合概率 宿迁市

2024

中国防汛抗旱
中国水利学会

中国防汛抗旱

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1673-9264
年,卷(期):2024.34(8)