短历时可能最大降水(PMP)是核电厂设计排水设施时的主要依据.在分析某滨海核电厂厂址区域暴雨特性、天气成因和站点资料的基础上,采用P-Ⅲ型曲线和矩法进行不同频率短历时降雨数值统计计算,然后通过不同历时 10000 年一遇降雨设计值与 24 h 10000 年一遇设计值进行比值计算分析得到不同短历时可能最大降水,最后通过与国内外特大暴雨记录和其他核电厂短历时PMP成果进行对比分析,表明计算结果合理,可为其他地区短历时PMP分析计算提供参考和借鉴.
Estimation of short-duration possible maximum precipitation based on frequency statistics method
The Short-duration probable maximum precipitation(PMP)is the main basis for the design of drainage facilities in nuclear power plants.Based on the analysis of the rainstorm characteristics,weather causes and site data of a coastal nuclear power plant site,this paper used the Pearson-Ⅲ curve and moment method to calculate the numerical statistics of short-duration rainfall with different frequencies,and then calculated and analyzed the ratio of the design value of different durations of once-in-ten-thousands-year rainfall and the design value of 24-hour once-in-ten-thousands-year rainfall to obtain the possible maximum precipitation with different short durations.Finally,by comparing with the records of heavy rainstorms at home and abroad and the short-duration PMP results of other nuclear power plants,the calculation results were reasonable,which can provide reference for the analysis and calculation of short-duration PMP in other regions.
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