首页|外江潮位抬升背景下江苏省太湖地区雨潮遭遇分析

外江潮位抬升背景下江苏省太湖地区雨潮遭遇分析

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研究感潮地区外江潮位的变化对有效发挥区域洪涝体系十分重要.江苏省太湖地区作为典型的感潮区域,在现状防洪体系下进行设计暴雨与设计洪水推算时,并未充分考虑与评估区域暴雨遭遇外江高潮位时对区域防洪的影响.根据沿江3个潮位代表站长系列实测潮位资料,对外江潮位变化趋势进行统计分析.结果表明,各潮位代表站年最高潮位表现出波动上升趋势,其中以镇江(二)潮位站变化趋势最为显著.但在汛期时,平均低潮位在历年变化中变幅不大,且在短历时(最大7d)降雨发生时期,各区域降雨重现期与潮位重现期之间相关性分析结果也表明二者之间显著不相关.从反映实际情景对区域不利影响的角度考虑,在新一轮《太湖流域防洪规划》修编中,仍建议沿用设计暴雨与实况潮位相组合的方案.
Encounter analysis of rain and tide in Taihu Lake Basin of Jiangsu Province under the tidal level rise of the Yangtze River
The variation of the tide level of the Yangtze River is vital to the regional flood and waterlogging control system in the tidal area.However,as a typical tide-sensing area,in the current flood control system of Taihu Lake area in Jiangsu Province,the impact of regional rainstorm encounters the high tidal level of the Yangtze River has not been fully considered in the calculation of designed rainstorm and designed flood.In this work,according to a series of measured tidal data of three representative tidal stations,the trend of the tidal level of the Yangtze River was statistically analyzed.The results show that the annual highest tidal level of each representative station show an overall rise trend,with the Zhenjiang Station showing the most significant trend.However,the average low tidal level of each representative station in flood season has little variation over the years,and there is a significant lack of correlation between rainfall recurrence period and tidal level recurrence period in each region in the short duration(maximum 7 days)rainfall period.In order to reflect the adverse impact of the actual scenario on the region,it is still recommended to extend the scheme of the combination of design rainstorm and actual tidal level in the revision of flood control planning of Taihu Basin area in Jiangsu Province.

Taihu Lake BasinJiangsu areatidal levelflood disasterstidal area

柳子豪、汪院生、钟栗、吴心艺、刘鹏、沙鹏

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江苏省太湖水利规划设计研究院有限公司,苏州 215006

太湖流域 江苏片区 潮位 洪涝灾害 感潮地区

江苏省水利科技项目

2022005

2024

中国防汛抗旱
中国水利学会

中国防汛抗旱

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1673-9264
年,卷(期):2024.34(9)