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蓄滞洪区安全运用分析评价体系构建及应用

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蓄滞洪区是流域防洪工程体系的重要组成部分,开展蓄滞洪区安全运用分析评价可为蓄滞洪区的启用决策提供技术支持,对于保障流域防洪安全具有重大意义,然而目前尚缺少蓄滞洪区安全运用分析评价体系.以蓄滞洪区"分得进""蓄得住""排得出""人安全"作为安全运用的"四大判断准则",按"目标—准则—指标"3层级,构建了包含17个评价指标的蓄滞洪区安全运用分析评价体系.参考相关规范、标准,并结合实际,将蓄滞洪区最终划分为3个等级,分别表征蓄滞洪区"能安全运用""基本可用,采取措施后基本能安全运用"及"不好用,存在较大安全运用风险".制定的安全运用分析评价体系在 98处国家蓄滞洪区进行了应用,以两个典型蓄滞洪区为例,最终评价结果分别为"能安全运用""基本可用,采取措施后基本能安全运用",与经验判断相符.结果表明所提出的评价指标体系具有较强的科学性和适用性.
Construction and application on safety operation analysis and evaluation system for flood storage and detention areas
Flood storage and detention areas(FSDAs)are crucial components of flood control systems in river basins.Conducting safety operation assessments of FSDAs can support decision-making regarding their activation and is of great significance for ensuring the safety of flood control in river basins.However,there is currently a lack of comprehensive safety operation analysis and evaluation systems for FSDAs.This study establishes an analytical evaluation system for the safety operation of FSDAs based on four major criteria:"effective division","sufficient retention","efficient discharge"and"human safety".The system is structured into three tiers:"objective—criteria—indicators,"comprising 17 evaluation indicators.By referencing relevant norms and standards,and integrating practical considerations,the FSDAs are ultimately classified into three operation of FSDAs based on four major criteria:"effective division","sufficient retention","efficient discharge"and"human safety".The system is structured into three tiers:"objective—criteria—indicators",comprising 17 evaluation indicators.By referencing relevant norms and standards,and integrating practical considerations,the FSDAs are ultimately classified into three grades,representing"safe for use","basically safe for use after measures taken to ensure safety",and"unsafe for use with posing significant operational risks".The proposed safety operation analysis and evaluation system was applied to 98 national FSDAs.This paper takes two typical FSDAs as examples,and the final evaluation results are"safe for use"and"basically safe for use with measures taken to ensure safety",which is consistent with empirical judgment.The results demonstrate that the evaluation indicator system possesses strong scientificity and applicability.

flood storage and detention areasafety operationevaluation systemevaluation indicatorsevaluation methods

李娜、王静、俞茜、王艳艳、丁志雄

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中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038

水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京 100038

蓄滞洪区 安全运用 评价体系 评价指标 评价方法

2024

中国防汛抗旱
中国水利学会

中国防汛抗旱

影响因子:0.286
ISSN:1673-9264
年,卷(期):2024.34(12)