首页|混合痔术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素探讨及风险预测Nomogram模型构建

混合痔术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素探讨及风险预测Nomogram模型构建

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目的:探讨混合痔术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素,并构建风险预测Nomogram模型。方法:回顾性分析2021年1月至2023年2月,本院手术治疗的220例混合痔患者,统计术后并发肛周湿疹情况,应用Logistic回归模型分析混合痔术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素,并采用rms包构建风险预测Nomogram模型,绘制校准曲线、受试者工作特征曲线验证模型的一致性和准确性,采用决策曲线分析模型的净获益。结果:混合痔患者术后肛周湿疹并发率为18。18%,经多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,女性、环状混合痔、Ⅳ度混合痔、手术操作不合理和术后排便异常均为混合痔术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素(P<0。05)。基于多因素Logistic回归分析得出的5项危险因素构建风险预测Nomogram模型,校准曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow检验(P>0。05)显示实际概率与预测概率具有良好一致性,受试者工作特征曲线显示曲线下面积为0。795(95%CI:0。728~0。852),决策曲线分析显示当阈概率>3%时该模型具有临床有效性。结论:女性、环状混合痔、Ⅳ度混合痔、手术操作不合理、术后排便异常均为混合痔患者术后并发肛周湿疹的危险因素,基于5项危险因素构建的风险预测No-mogram 模型具有良好的一致性、准确性和临床价值。
Risk Factors of Perianal Eczema After Mixed Hemorrhoids Operation and Construction of Risk Prediction No-mogram Model
Objective To explore the risk factors of perianal eczema after mixed hemorrhoids operation,and to construct a risk prediction Nomogram model.Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 220 patients with mixed hemorrhoids who were treated in our hospital from January 2021 to February 2023.The postoperative perianal eczema was analyzed.The risk factors of perianal eczema after mixed hem-orrhoids operation were analyzed by Logistic regression model,and the risk prediction Nomogram model was constructed by rms package.The calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve were drawn to verify the consistency and accuracy of the model,and the net benefit of the model was analyzed by decision curve.Results The incidence of perianal eczema after mixed hemorrhoids operation was 18.18%.The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that female,annular mixed hem-orrhoids,degree Ⅳ mixed hemorrhoids,irrational surgical operation and abnormal postoperative defecation were all risk factors of perianal eczema after mixed hemorrhoids operation(P<0.05).The risk predic-tion Nomogram model was constructed based on the five risk factors obtained by multivariate Logistic re-gression analysis.The calibration curve and Hosmer Lemeshow test(P>0.05)showed that the actual probability was in good agreement with the predicted probability.The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve was 0.795(95%CI:0.728-0.852).Conclusion Female,an-nular mixed hemorrhoids,degree Ⅳ mixed hemorrhoids,irrational surgical operation,and abnormal postop-erative defecation are all risk factors for postoperative perianal eczema in patients with mixed hemorrhoids.The risk prediction Nomogram model based on the five risk factors has good consistency,accuracy,and clinical value.

Mixed hemorrhoidsPerianal eczemaRisk factorsNomogram model

郭洁、李巍

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郑州市金水区总医院(河南 郑州 450000)

混合痔 肛周湿疹 危险因素 Nomogram模型

2024

中国肛肠病杂志
中华中医药学会肛肠分会 山东中医药学会

中国肛肠病杂志

影响因子:0.131
ISSN:1000-1174
年,卷(期):2024.44(3)
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