Factors Influencing Quality of Bowel Preparation Before Colonoscopy in Elderly Patients and Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Bowel Preparation Failure
Objective To investigate the factors influencing the quality of bowel preparation before colonoscopy in elderly patients,and to construct and validate a risk prediction model for bowel preparation failure.Methods A total of 500 elderly patients(modeling group)who received colonoscopy in our hos-pital from September 2021 to October 2023 were selected and divided into successful bowel preparation group and failed bowel preparation group according to the success or failure of bowel preparation.The risk factors of failed bowel preparation were analyzed by univariate and logistic regression analysis,and a risk assessment model was established.A total of 200 elderly patients who underwent colonoscopy in our hospi-tal from November 2023 to March 2024 were selected as the validation group.The predictive effect of the risk model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and Hosmer-Lemeshow x2 test.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥65 years old,BMI＞24 kg/m2,combined diabe-tes,history of colorectal operation,no history of colonoscopy,and BSFS type 1-2 were independent risk fac-tors for bowel preparation failure in elderly patients(P＜0.05).The risk model was constructed,and pa-tients with scores ≥8 were classified as the high-risk group.Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that X2=8.870 and P=2.254 in the modeling group.The area under ROC curve(AUC),sensitivity and specificity were 0.720,51.85％and 80.95％in the modeling group,respectively.Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed X2=4.190 and P=0.839 in the verification group.The AUC,sensitivity,specificity and accuracy were 0.726,49.20％,83.65％and 72.68％in the verification group,respectively.Conclusion The failure of bowel preparation before colonoscopy in elderly patients is affected by multiple factors,such as age ≥65 years,BMI＞24 kg/m2,combined diabetes,history of colorectal operation,no history of colonoscopy,and BSFS type 1-2.The prediction effect of risk prediction model is good,which is helpful for clinical nursing intervention and improving the quality of bowel preparation before colonoscopy.
ColonoscopyBowel preparationInfluencing factorsPredict ion model
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万方数据
