空间资产风险评估与控制研究
Risk Assessment and Control of Space Assets
张东江 1高智杰 2杨志涛 3张馨文 4蓝鼎5
作者信息
- 1. 北京理工大学人文与社会科学学院,北京 100081
- 2. 北京理工大学国家安全与发展研究院,北京 100081
- 3. 中国科学院国家天文台,北京 100101
- 4. 北京理工大学计算机学院,北京 100081
- 5. 中国科学院力学研究所,北京 100084
- 折叠
摘要
空间资产是国家的重要战略资产,有效控制其所面临的各类风险将有助于推动空间资产效益最大化,提高对国家安全与发展的贡献率,推动航天强国建设.本文首先讨论了空间资产的定义与内涵,认为从狭义来讲空间资产主要包含我国所有的在轨航天器,广义来讲还包括与其相关的一些关联资产和无形资产.其次,从多个维度梳理了空间资产的潜在风险源,并划分为技术、军事和管理三大类风险,其中技术类风险包括碰撞解体、爆炸解体、载荷故障、凯斯勒效应等;军事风险包括将航天器作为武器或武器平台等风险;管理风险主要指管理制度不匹配、无形资产流失等;之后针对技术类风险初步讨论了空间资产风险量化评估方法,建立空间资产价值的量化评估模型,并简要分析可能的风险控制方法.最后,面向空间资产风险事件的处置应对问题,提出初步的风险事件分级模型及处置应对需重点考虑的几个方面,如体制机制的建立、应对预案的制定、责任主体的划分、处置行动的落实与监督等.
Abstract
Space assets are crucial resources for a nation,and effectively managing the various risks associated with them will help maximize their benefits,enhance their contribution to national modernization and security,and improve the strength of the space industry.First,this study clarifies the definition and scope of space assets.In a narrow sense,space assets encompass all spacecraft in orbit.Broadly speaking,space assets also comprise related physical and intangible assets.Second,potential risk sources are identified from multiple dimensions and categorized into technical risks(such as collision disintegration,explosive disintegration,and load failure),military risks(including the use of spacecraft as weapons or weapon platforms),and management risks(referring mainly to mismatches in management systems,leading to loss of intangible assets).Subsequently,this study explores a quantitative assessment method for the technical risks,establishes a model for quantifying space asset values,and briefly analyzes possible risk control methods.Furthermore,a preliminary classification model for risk events is proposed along with several considerations including establishment of systems and mechanisms,formulation of response plans,responsibility allocation,and implementation and supervision of disposal actions.
关键词
空间资产/风险评估/价值模型/风险控制/风险分级Key words
space assets/risk assessment/value model/risk control/risk classification引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国工程院咨询项目(2022-HZ-17)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据