首页|绿色低碳转型背景下能源安全评估体系重构与启示

绿色低碳转型背景下能源安全评估体系重构与启示

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  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 万方数据
能源安全是国家安全的重要组成部分、能源系统绿色低碳转型的重要前提,其内涵已从传统化石能源供应安全拓展至包含稳定供应和可持续利用的更丰富维度.本文构建了绿色低碳转型目标下的新型能源安全评估体系,以美国、英国、中国、印度等18个国家为例识别了能源安全的演变特征.研究发现:在面向绿色低碳转型目标的多元化能源安全评估体系下,英国、日本、中国等油气资源匮乏国家的能源安全性显著提升,阿联酋、俄罗斯等国家在国际能源市场上的主导地位被削弱;全球进一步发展可再生能源将强化这一趋势.在绿色低碳转型背景下,能源安全水平与可持续发展水平呈高度正相关,可持续发展程度较高的国家在能源转型中更具优势;敏感性分析显示,尽管化石能源供应仍是各国能源安全的主导因素,但多元化供应、可持续利用在能源安全中的重要性显著提升.为此建议,把握转型契机,发挥我国在可再生能源领域的资源优势,健全能源治理体系,以可持续发展为重点举措,提高能源安全水平,为提升我国在国际能源市场中的话语权和主动性提供支撑.
Reconstruction and Implications of Energy Security Assessment System in the Context of Green and Low-Carbon Transition
Energy security is a critical component of national security and a prerequisite for the green and low-carbon transition of the energy system.The concept of energy security has broadened from a traditional focus on fossil fuel supply to include the stable supply and sustainable utilization of energy resources.This study constructs a new energy security assessment framework targeting green and low-carbon transition,analyzing the evolution of energy security in 18 countries worldwide.The findings are as follows:(1)Within a diversified evaluation system aligned with green and low-carbon objectives,energy security has significantly improved in countries with limited oil and gas resources,such as the United Kingdom,Japan,and China.Conversely,the dominant position of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Russia in the international energy market has been reduced.Continued development in renewable energy will reinforce this trend.(2)A strong positive correlation exists between energy security and sustainable development levels in the context of a green and low-carbon transition.Countries with higher sustainability levels have greater advantages in the energy transition process.(3)Sensitivity analysis reveals that although fossil fuel supply remains a key factor in energy security,the importance of diversified supply and sustainable utilization has significantly increased.Therefore,it is recommended that China seize the transition opportunity by leveraging China's resource advantages in renewable energy,enhancing the energy governance system,and focusing on sustainable development.These actions will improve energy security and support China in increasing its influence and proactivity in the international energy market.

energy securitygreen and low-carbonenergy transitionrenewable energysustainable developmentevolution of energy patterns

章姝、马堉博、郑馨竺、朱潜挺、唐旭

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中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京 102249

能源安全 绿色低碳 能源转型 可再生能源 可持续发展 能源格局演变

中国工程院咨询项目中国科协青年人才托举工程北京市科协青年人才托举工程

2023-XBZD-05YESS20230197BYESS2023461

2024

10.15302/J-SSCAE-2024.04.016

中国工程科学
中国工程院,高等教育出版社有限公司

中国工程科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.737
ISSN：1009-1742
年,卷(期)：2024.26(4)
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