煤炭安全保供及高效降碳效力研究可为能源强国目标下煤炭领域发展规划提供有力的决策支撑.本文从安全保供和高效降碳两个角度入手,研究了煤炭在能源强国目标下继续保持主体能源地位的潜力、能力和实力,着重通过构建煤炭安全保供的系统动力学模型预测了煤炭安全保供的效力,分析了2060年前煤炭领域的降碳效力.研究结果表明:我国煤炭的可采储量和资源分布是安全保供的基本保障,结合近20年煤炭供应和消费关系可知,我国煤炭资源具备稳定、安全、坚实的保供能力;未来煤炭的安全保供效力在波动中逐渐趋向于动态的柔性平衡;传统煤炭能源向煤基能源过渡效力是构建能源强国目标下新型能源体系的重要环节.我国煤炭领域在清洁转化与利用中体现出显著的降碳潜力,未来随着煤炭地下气化和富油煤开发利用等技术的发展应用将展现出较强的降碳效力,至2060年总体的降碳效力约为1×109 t.
Effectiveness of Secure Supply and Carbon Reduction in the Coal Sector for Strengthening the Energy Power of China
Research on the effectiveness of coal stable supply and carbon reduction can provide robust decision-making support for the development planning of the coal sector.This study examines the potential,capacity,and resilience of coal to maintain its primary energy status,focusing on the secure supply and carbon reduction perspectives.A system dynamics model is constructed to predict the effectiveness of coal stable supply,and the carbon reduction effectiveness within the coal sector until 2060 is evaluated.The results indicate that the recoverable reserves and resource distribution of coal in China are basic guarantee for ensuring energy security.Based on the coal supply and consumption relationship in the past 20 years,it can be concluded that coal supply in China is stable and secure.In the future,the secure supply effectiveness of coal will gradually achieve a dynamic flexible balance with fluctuations.Transitioning from traditional coal-dominated energy to coal-based energy is crucial for establishing a new energy system.China's coal industry has shown significant potential for carbon emission reduction in processing and utilization,and will demonstrate strong carbon-reduction effectiveness through the development and application of technologies such as underground gasification of coal and development and utilization of oil-rich coal.By 2060,the overall carbon reduction effectiveness will reach approximately 1×109 t.
energy powercoal sectorstable supplycarbon emission reductioneffectiveness estimation
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