首页|Understanding and improving Yangtze River Basin summer precipitation prediction using an optimal multi-Physics ensemble

Understanding and improving Yangtze River Basin summer precipitation prediction using an optimal multi-Physics ensemble

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This study employs the regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model(CWRF)to first investigate the primary physical mechanisms causing biases in simulating summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin(YRB),and then enhance its predictive ability through an optimal multi-physics ensemble approach.The CWRF 30-km simulations in China are compared among 28 combinations of varying physics parameterizations during 1980-2015.Long-term average summer biases in YRB precipitation are remotely correlated with those of large-scale circulations.These teleconnections of biases are highly consistent with the observed correlation patterns between interannual variations of precipitation and circulations,despite minor shifts in their primary action centers.Increased YRB precipitation aligns with a southward shifted East Asian westerly jet,an intensified low-level southerly flow south of YRB,and a south-eastward shifted South Asian high,alongside higher moisture availability over YRB.Conversely,decreased YRB precipitation corresponds to an opposite circulation pattern.The CWRF control con-figuration using the ensemble cumulus parameterization(ECP),compared to other cumulus schemes,best captures the observed YRB precipitation characteristics and associated circulation patterns.Coupling ECP with the Morrison or Morrison-aerosol microphysics and the CCCMA or CAML radiation schemes enhances the overall CWRF skills.Compared to the control CWRF,the ensem-ble average of these skill-enhanced physics configurations more accurately reproduces YRB summer precipitation's spatial distributions,interannual anomalies,and associated circulation patterns.The Bayesian Joint Probability calibra-tion to these configurations improves the ensemble's spatial distributions but compromises its interannual anomalies and teleconnection patterns.Our findings highlight substantial potential for refining the representa-tion of climate system physics to improve YRB precipita-tion prediction.This is notably achieved by realistically coupling cumulus,microphysics,and radiation processes to accurately capture circulation teleconnections.Further enhancements can be achieved by optimizing the multi-physics ensemble among skill-enhanced configurations.

physics parameterizationregional climate modeldownscaling skill enhancementmulti-physics ensembleteleconnectionbias reduction

Yang ZHAO、Fengxue QIAO、Xin-Zhong LIANG、Jinhua YU

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Climate,Environment and Sustainability Center,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science(Ministry of Education),East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China

School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China

Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,University of Maryland,College Park MD 20740,USA

Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center,University of Maryland,College Park MD 20740,USA

Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster(KLME)(Ministry of Education)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China

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US National Science Foundation Innovations at the Nexus of Food,Energy and Water Systems(US-China INFEWS)China Meteorological Administration/National Climate Center research subcontractthe Shanghai 2021"Scientific and technological innovation action plan"Natural Science Foundation

EAR1903249221101181650121ZR1420400

2024

地球科学前沿
高等教育出版社

地球科学前沿

CSTPCD
影响因子:0.585
ISSN:2095-0195
年,卷(期):2024.18(1)