Accurate prediction of the new energy vehicle market's development trend is of great practical significance for the realization of the development planning of the industry and China's energy strategic goals.Therefore,based on the existing two types of grey power models,an improved grey power model with multiple parameters is proposed,which can reflect the nonlinear effect of historical value and time sequence factors on the current value of the system.In addition,according to the information coverage principle of grey derivative,the differential form and derived discrete form of the model are given,denoted as DTGPM,and the time response function of the model is given,which avoids the complex integral solution process of the traditional grey power model.Furthermore,the heuristic algorithm is used to optimize the power parameters of the DTGPM model,and the prediction effectiveness of the model is verified by simulation experiments and practi-cal example.Finally,the market sales volume of new energy vehicles is forecast.The forecast results show that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 4.73 million in 2022,and is expected to reach nearly 10 million in 2025,accounting for 23.5％of the total sales volume of new vehicles.
关键词
灰色幂模型/预测算法/新能源汽车/销量预测
Key words
grey power model/prediction algorithm/new energy vehicles/sales forecasts
维普
万方数据