Optimal Selection of Relief Procurement Time in the Early Stage of Epidemics
Rational allocation of emergency medical resource is crucial for epidemic prevention and control.However,in the early stage of the epidemic,emergency departments are often difficult to accurately predict its spread trend in the first time,and need to update and revise the prediction results through continuous learning of new information in the later stage.Thus,early launch of emergency procurement plans may lead to idle resources due to the inaccurate prediction of epidemic evolution,and late launch may lead to the risk of resource shortage.In this context,optimal selection of the start time of resource procurement becomes an important deci-sion problem faced by emergency departments.Since the 21st century,emergency procurement problems has been widely concerned and deeply studied by scholars.However,most of the existing studies only focus on sup-plier selection,order allocation,contract design problems under the background of natural disasters such as earthquake and hurricane,but little attention is paid to the start point selection of emergency procurement under the background of epidemic.In particular,compared with natural disasters,the evolution of the epidemic has dynamic and time-varying characteristics,which brings new challenges to the procurement optimization problem.In this context,a novel emergency procurement optimization problem is present under the epidemic situation.Firstly,in order to obtain the optimal start time of emergency procurement,an epidemic observation stopping time(or emergency start-up time)judgment rules is proposed,and the boundary characteristics and influencing factors of the optimal start-up time are analyzed.Secondly,in order to obtain an effective supplier selection and order allocation scheme after starting procurement,a novel mixed integer programming model is proposed after comprehensively considering the differences of each supplier in order quantity,supply capacity,procurement lead time and shortage risk.Thirdly,the above two problems are integrated and a data-driven framework model of emergency procurement is constructed based on the optimization process of"epidemic predic-tion,emergency response effect comparison,stop-judgment and parameter update".Finally,the model is applied in a case study,and the simulation results show that the data-driven model not only ensures that procurement deci-sions are based on epidemic data,but also ensures that epidemic data are updated in real time.
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维普
