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武器装备体系贡献率评估灰色Shapley值模型

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针对现有体系贡献率评估忽略装备间涌现效应这一问题,本文设计了合作博弈视角的体系贡献率评估框架。首先,将装备视为合作博弈的参与方,并组成合作博弈中的不同联盟;进而考虑体系效能评估过程复杂性、信息不确定等特征,采用区间灰数表征相关参数,设计了灰色ADC模型,测算各联盟的特征函数。在此基础上,根据装备对体系效能的边际贡献,构建了灰色Shapley值模型并给出计算公式,从而将效能公平、合理地分配给各装备,测算出各自体系贡献率。最后,以某防空导弹武器装备系统的体系贡献率计算为例说明了所提方法的有效性。
On Grey Shapley Value Model for Evaluating the Contribution Rate of Weapon Equipment System
Aiming at the problem that the existing system contribution rate evaluation method,i.e.,"With or without"comparison method,ignores the emergence effect between equipment,a system effectiveness contribution rate evaluation framework from the perspective of a cooperative game is proposed in this work.First,equipment is regarded as participants in the cooperative game and forms different alliances of a coopera-tive game;then,considering the complexity of the system effectiveness evaluation process,the uncertain information and other characteristics,the interval grey number is used to characterize the relevant parameters,and the grey ADC model is designed to measure the characteristic function of each alliance;on this basis,a grey Shapley value model is constructed and the calculation formula is given according to the marginal contribution of equipment to the overall system efficiency so that the efficiency can be fairly and reasonably allocated to each equipment,and their respective contribution rates are calculated.Finally,the calculation of the system contribu-tion rate of a certain air defense missile weapon system is taken as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

system contribution rate evaluationgrey Shapley modelADC modelinterval grey number

陶良彦、王丽、齐晓霞、陈顶、刘思峰

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南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏 南京 211106

上海机电工程研究所,上海 201109

体系贡献度评估 灰色Shapley值模型 ADC模型 区间灰数

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目

7180112771671091722711242019TQ0150

2024

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.938
ISSN:1003-207X
年,卷(期):2024.32(4)
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