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考虑风险态度和自信行为的应急响应等级决策方法

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应急响应等级是有力有序有效开展突发事件应急处置的重要依据。针对复杂不确定情境下专家对响应等级判断存在冲突的应急响应等级决策问题，运用证据理论，通过分析专家面对不确定的风险态度对证据生成的影响及自信行为的量化方式，提出专家的响应等级判断与证据体的转化方法;然后，从证据可信度和专家本身两个层面，提出证据可靠度的测度方法，并基于可靠度进行冲突证据的修正和融合;进一步地，考虑融合结果的不确定性对决策的影响，提出了应急响应等级的决策方法。最后，以某地区群体性突发事件应急处置为例验证了该方法的有效性和科学性。结果表明，考虑专家风险态度能够提升响应等级判断的准确性，且同时考虑专家自信行为对提升决策质量是有益且必要的。
Decision-Making Method of Emergency Response Level Considering Riskattitude and Self-confident Behavior
The level of emergency response is an important basis for effective,orderly and effective emergency disposal.In the case of increasing complexity,uncertainty and harmfulness of emergency events,decision-maker usually cannot accurately determine the emergency response level in a short period of time,and it is necessary to organize experts in many fields to conduct consultations and judgements.For the decision-making scenarios where experts have different judgements on the response levels,the voting mechanisms,such as the principle of minority obeying majority,cannot be well applied because these decision-making methods based on the deterministic information is not suitable for complex uncertain decision-making in emergency environment.In this paper,both the complexity of experts' risk attitudes and expert self-confidence behavior are considered to resolve the conflicts in the judgement of the response levels,so as to provide support for decision maker to accurately determine the emergency response level.First,a method for generating evidence,that is influenced by experts′ riskattitude,is proposed to transform the incomplete judgement information provided by experts into the form of evidence using evidence theory.Then,from the two different aspects of judgement reliability and expert weight,the measurement method of evidence reliability is proposed for the fusion of conflict evidence,and an optimizing decision method of processing different judgements on the response levels is further developed.Finally,the effectiveness and scientificity of the proposed method are verified by an example.The results show that the consideration of experts′ risk attitude can improve the accuracy of judgment,and it is beneficial and necessary to consider self-confident behavior in decision making to improve decision quality.There is both theoretical and practical significance for improving the government′semergency management capabilities.

emergency decision-makingrisk attitudeself-confident behavioremergency response levelevidence theory

张磊、叶鑫

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大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁 大连 116024

应急决策 风险态度 自信行为 应急响应分级 证据理论

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目中国博士后科学基金项目中央高校基本科研业务费项目大连市科技创新基金项目

72304059718740202020M670761DUT22RC30512022JJ12GX012

2024

10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2021.1618

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.938
ISSN：1003-207X
年,卷(期)：2024.32(6)