首页|韧性导向下考虑多重关联的城市关键基础设施防护-修复资源配置研究

韧性导向下考虑多重关联的城市关键基础设施防护-修复资源配置研究

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增强城市关键基础设施韧性，提高其防范与应对诸多风险的能力，是维持经济稳定与社会安全的重要抓手。如何实现有限资源在不同系统设施之间以及不同阶段之间的优化配置将直接影响韧性提升效果。这涉及对所有可能或已受损设施组件，以及对事前防护与事后修复阶段进行资源配置决策。此外，多风险关联与多系统关联叠加诱发的多重关联增加了资源配置的难度。本文以韧性最大化为目标，将风险关联融合到风险情境、将系统关联集成到约束中，基于网络流理论构建了考虑多重关联的防护-修复资源配置两阶段随机规划模型。以H地区为例验证所建模型的有效性，制定了多种风险情境下的防护-修复资源配置方案，分析了在资源配置决策中考虑多重关联以及防护-修复相结合的必要性，并识别了资源投入在韧性提升中的边际递减效应。研究成果为多风险情境下多系统、多阶段资源的优化配置提供了定量化的决策依据，有助于设施监管部门防范化解风险，进而支撑韧性城市的建设与运行。
Research on a Resilience-Oriented Resource Allocation for the Protection and Restoration of Critical Infrastructures Considering Multiple Interdependencies
Improving the resilience of critical infrastructures(CIs)and its ability to prevent and respond to vari-ous risks is crucial for maintaining economic stability and social security.The optimization of resource allocation among different CI systems and different stages will directly impact the effectiveness of resilience improvement.This involves making resource allocation decisions for all possible or already damaged CI components and for both the pre-disaster protection and post-disaster restoration efforts.The complex interdependencies among multiple risks and among multiple CIs render the resource allocation more challenging.With the goal of maximizing the resilience of CIs,risk interdependencies are integerated into risk scenarios and incorporate CI interdependencies into constraints.Based on network flow theory,a two-stage stochastic programming model is constructed for protection-restoration resource allocation considering multiple interdependencies.The effective-ness of the proposed model is verified using the example of Region H.Resource allocation plans are developed for various risk scenarios,the necessity of considering multiple interdependencies and the combination of protec-tion and restoration in resource allocation decisions is analyzed,as well as identify the marginal diminishing effects of resource investment on resilience improvement.The research findings provide quantitative evidence for the optimization of resource allocation in multi-risk scenarios,multiple CI systems,and multiple stages.This will assist CI regulatory authorities in preventing and mitigating risks,thereby supporting the construction and operation of resilient cities.

critical infrastructuresresiliencemultiple interdependenciesprotection-restorationresource allocation

王林、顾生辉、索玮岚

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东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海 100051

中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190

城市关键基础设施 韧性 多重关联 防护-修复 资源配置

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目国家自然科学基金面上项目上海市"科技创新行动计划"启明星项目扬帆专项中央高校基本科研业务费项目

22YJC6301377207420722YF14016002232022E-04

2024

10.16381/j.cnki.issn1003-207x.2023.1407

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.938
ISSN：1003-207X
年,卷(期)：2024.32(6)