Does the Household Registration Relaxation Policy Promote Housing Price Growth?——Evidence from the Seventy Large and Medium-sized Cities of China
The implementation of the household registration relaxation policy has positive effect on economic and social development.However,does the household registration relaxation policy promote the growth of housing price?The academic discussion is still controversial.Due to differences in development foundation and resource endowment,the performance of different city may also vary.Therefore,it is of great significance to accurately evaluate the long-term and short-term dynamic disposal effect and urban differences of the settlement easing policy on housing price growth,as well as the factors affecting the disposal effect.Firstly,the research object is set as 70 large and medium-sized cities,and an HCW model based on machine learning Lasso method is used to evaluate the policy disposal effect of relaxation of household registration on housing price growth.Next,stepwise regression method is used to analyze the influencing factors of policy disposal effects.Finally,policy recommendations are proposed based on empirical conclusions.The data is sourced from CENET Industry Database,and relevant information about the household registration relaxation policy is sourced from the official websites of the people's governments of various cities.From our results,the following conclusions are drawn.First,in the short term,the policy does not increase the growth rate of housing prices.In the long term,the policy increases the growth rate of housing prices,but the improvement effect is limited.Second,the disposal effects of various cities exhibit significant differentiation characteristics,which are related to factors such as medical construction level,transportation convenience,urban land occupation size,and climate environ-ment.Finally,the household registration relaxation policy should be implemented"according to the city".The application field of the HCW policy evaluation model is expanded,the research on the influencing factors of housing prices is deepened,micro level Empirical evidence is provided for the in-depth implementation of the settlement easing policy,and there is important practical significance for the reform of the registered residence system and the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry under the background of"housing without speculation".
relaxation of household registrationhouse price growth ratepolicy disposal effect
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