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中国工业氮氧化物排放和强度的结构分解分析及其减排策略

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经济增长给生态环境可持续发展带来了挑战。氮氧化物污染已成为中国社会经济发展的严峻挑战,尤其是工业源氮氧化物污染。现阶段,政策制定者与学者常使用氮氧化物排放总量的变化来衡量环境绩效,少有研究使用结构分解分析方法系统地追踪氮氧化物排放/强度变化的驱动因素。本文在投入产出框架下,对中国工业氮氧化物排放/强度进行加性/乘性结构分解,分别从整体层面、最终需求层面和部门层面探究其驱动因素。结果表明,最终需求层面隐含排放/强度均明显降低,投资和居民消费是氮氧化物排放/强度的主要需求驱动力。排放强度效应是氮氧化物排放/强度下降的主要驱动因素(91。69%),最终需求效应是氮氧化物排放/强度降低的阻碍因素。在部门层面,隐含排放主要由建筑业驱动(49。26%),经济增长主要由服务业驱动(44。90%);"电力、热力生产和供应业""非金属矿物制品业"和"黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业"排放效率的提高是总排放强度下降的主要驱动因素。基于以上结论,本文讨论了实现经济发展与环境保护双重目标的减排策略,为未来氮氧化物污染的治理提供了理论依据。
Mitigation Strategy Analysis of Aggregate Industrial NO,and NO,Intensity in China Using Structural Decomposition Analysis Framework
Economic growth has brought challenges to ecological and environmental sustainable development.NOx governance has become one of the severe challenges of China's social and economic development,especially the industrial sources.Although the absolute change in aggregate NOx emissions is often used by researchers and policymakers to measure environmental performance,very few studies systematically track the drivers of NOx emission/intensity changes with structural decomposition analysis(SDA).The embodied industrial NOx emission/intensity is estimated by final demand category at the aggregate and sector levels,and the total NOx emission/intensity is decomposed using additive and multiplicative SDA under the input-output framework.The results show that the embodied emissions/intensity were significantly reduced at the final demand category level;investment was the main contributor to China's NOx emission/intensity,followed by household consumption.The emission intensity effect is the main driver(91.69%)of NOx emission/intensity reduction,and the domestic Leontief structure effect is the catalyst for the emission intensity effect.The final demand categories presents a blocking effect.At the sector level,the aggregate embodied NOx emission is mainly contributed by construction(49.26%),and the aggregate embodied Value Added is mainly contributed by service(44.90%).The emission efficiency improvement of the sectors"Production and supply of electricity and heating power","Non-metal minerals products"and"Smelting and pressing of ferrous metals"make these sectors the main contributors to the decline in the total aggregate embodied emission intensity.Finally,the mitigation strategy is discussed from a win-win perspective balancing economic growth and environmental protection,which provides a theoretical basis for future NOx governance.

input-output analysisNOx emissionsstructural decomposition analysisaggregate embodied intensitymitigation strategy

张国兴、韩继磊、Su Bin

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兰州大学管理学院,甘肃 兰州 730000

新加坡国立大学能源研究所,新加坡 119620

新加坡国立大学工业系统工程与管理系,新加坡 117576

投入产出分析 氮氧化物排放 结构分解分析 总隐含强度 减缓策略

国家社会科学基金重点项目

21AZD112

2024

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.938
ISSN:1003-207X
年,卷(期):2024.32(7)