摘要
如何在(半)干旱的情况下考虑到各级决策者博弈行为并设计行之有效的水资源配置方案是我国面临的难题.气候变化、经济发展和人口增长等因素使得水资源的供给和需求的不确定性显著增加,而且其统计学分布特征也难以明确确定.为解决流域水资源全局均衡配置问题,构建了基于多种特征的模型,包括水文环境不确定性、斯坦伯格博弈和存在非凸目标函数.由于传统算法无法直接对该模型求解,因此需要开发新的算法来解决这一问题.因此,本文针对(半)干旱环境下流域初始水权和水使用权配置问题,构建了适应中国水情的二层鲁棒优化模型,并基于鲁棒优化、凸优化理论和分段线性方法,提出一种求解全局最优解的方法.最后,通过黑河流域实例验证,证明了此模型及求解方法的有效性.
Abstract
The United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 6 puts forward to improve water use efficiency while implementing integrated water resources management from a multi-scale perspective.However,how to design effective water resource allocation scheme in the situation of(semi)drought consider the game behavior of decision-makers is a severe problem in China.Firstly,climate change,economic development,population growth and other factors lead to a significant increase in the uncertainty in water supply and demand,of which its statistical distribution are difficult to.be determined directly.Secondly,when adding hydrological environ-ment uncertainty,Stackelberg game and non-convex objective function into a water resource allocation model,it would be difficult to solve.Therefore,to allocate initial water rights and water use rights in(semi-)arid environment,a new bi-level robust optimization model is proposed in this paper,moreover,the global optimal solution method based on robust optimization,convex optimization theory and piecewise linear method is needed and deigned.In this study,a bi-level multi-followers robust programming model is proposed for water allocation problems under uncertainty,wherein hierarchical optimization,polyhedral uncertainty sets,and a non-convex objective function coexist.The proposed deciding framework can suitably address resources alloca-tion problems under uncertainty with multiple kinds of decision-makers.It is believed that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature.To some extent,prior studies have applied heuristics to solve analogous decision-making problems that include more than one hierarchy.These studies often obtained local solutions.However,the quality of the allocation strategy directly affects social progress and economic develop-ment.This predicament requires a global solution,which our work addresses.To be specific,in our three-stage global approach,the first stage supports uncertain characterization and robust equivalent transformations.In the second stage,a single-level model is generated through the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker and big M methods.The last stage focuses on obtaining a global solution by applying the convexification and piecewise linear technique.In this way,the authors obtain a robust counterpart problem for solving the uncertainty embodied in the proposed model.In addition,convexification and piecewise techniques are uniquely used to get a global solu-tion.Finally,a case study of Heihe River basin is given to verify the validity of the model and solution method.Based on the above results,it is suggested that adjusting strategies should be optimized for different regions based on resource endowments and development targets.In real-world practice,it is believed our findings have important implications for the mitigation of resources use conflicts among multiple participants in resources(semi)-scarce areas.
维普
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