碳总量控制政策对中国经济高质量发展的影响——基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究
The Impact of Total Carbon Control on High-Quality Development:A Study Based on China's Provincial Panel Data
牛苗苗 1谭显春 1郭建新 1朱开伟 2程永龙1
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190;中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京 100049
- 2. 清华大学核能与新能源技术研究院,北京 100084
- 折叠
摘要
在中国提出碳达峰碳中和目标以及经济转向高质量发展背景下,科学评估碳总量控制政策对中国经济高质量发展的影响十分必要,但目前该领域的理论研究和实证证据均十分有限.本文以新发展理念为导引构建了高质量发展综合评价指标体系,对2010-2019年全国及各省份的高质量发展指数进行测算.在此基础上,采用双重差分模型研究了碳总量控制政策对中国经济高质量发展的影响,并探讨了其影响机制.研究发现:(1)2010-2019年全国经济高质量发展指数呈现稳步上升的趋势;(2)碳总量控制政策显著促进了试点省份的经济高质量发展,且该促进作用将不断增强;(3)碳总量控制政策主要通过产业结构高级化的传导路径促进经济高质量发展.本文研究结论为中国在高质量发展背景下实施碳总量控制政策提供了有益参考.
Abstract
Under the background of China putting forward the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,and China's economy turning to high-quality development,it is very necessary to scientifically evaluate the impact of total carbon control policy on China's high-quality economic development,but both theoretical research and empirical evidence in this field are very limited.Guided by the new development concept,a comprehensive evaluation index system is established to evaluate the high-quality development index of each province from 2010 to 2019;On this basis,DIDmodel is used to study the impact of total carbon control policy on high-quality development.The results show that:(1)The national high-quality development index shows a steady upward trend from 2010 to 2019;(2)The total carbon control policy has significantly promoted the high-quality development of the pilot areas,and its role in promoting high-quality development will continue to increase in the future;(3)The total carbon control policy mainly promotes high-quality development through the transmission path of advanced industrial structure.The research conclusions of this paper provide a beneficialreferencefor China to implement the total carbon control policyunderthe background of high-quality economic development.
关键词
碳总量控制/高质量发展/评价指标体系/双重差分模型Key words
total carbon control/high-quality development/assessmentindicator system/difference-in-differences引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(72140007)
国家自然科学基金专项项目(E102971901)
生态环境部项目(G-2009-32445)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据