首页|突发事件风险下的供应链重构策略研究

突发事件风险下的供应链重构策略研究

扫码查看
突发事件的出现会对供应链的运作和企业的经营产生严重影响。本文研究了突发事件风险下的供应链重构策略,构建了突发事件下存在供应和需求两方中断的供应链决策模型。模型考虑一个制造商需向一个主供应商采购一种核心零部件以满足线下市场需求;突发事件发生后,为应对主供应商的供应中断和线下市场的销售停滞问题,制造商可以重构自身的供应链——启动后备采购(即向一个未受突发事件影响的后备供应商紧急采购零部件)并开拓线上销售业务,其中后备供应商的单位生产成本比主供应商更高,且制造商需在突发事件风险实现前向后备供应商预留产能才能保证后备采购的可获得性。研究结果表明,在突发事件风险下,存在一个阈值使线上市场潜能低于该阈值时,制造商不会重构自身的供应链,否则,制造商会进行供应链重构——向后备供应商预留后备采购的产能并开辟产品的线上销售渠道,其中该阈值是一个关于突发事件风险、后备生产成本、单位产能预订价格的函数。而且,制造商实施供应链重构的区间随突发事件风险的增加而放大,随后备采购成本、产能预留价格的增加而缩小。从事前来看,制造商向后备供应商预订产能时,超订总是会发生。当制造商实施供应链重构时,若突发事件发生的风险较小,则产能预订成本高于后备采购的期望成本,即后备供应商通过制造商的产能超订获得了额外收益;否则,产能预订成本低于后备采购的期望成本,即制造商不会因为产能超订而蒙受损失。
Supply-Chain Reconfiguration Strategy under the Risk of Emergencies
The outbreak of emergencies has severely affected the operation of the supply chain and the business activities of enterprises.The supply chain reconfiguration strategy is studied under the risk of emergencies,and a supply chain decision model is constructed with supply and demand interruptions under emergencies.The model considers that a manufacturer needs to purchase a core component from a main supplier to meet the offline market demand;after the outbreak of emergencies,in order to deal with the supply interruption of the main sup-plier and the sales stagnation in the offline market,the manufacturer can put in a cost to implement the supply chain reconfiguration-start the backup purchase(i.e.,make an urgent purchase of components to a backup sup-plier not affected by emergencies)and carry out online sales business,in which the unit production cost of the backup supplier is higher than that of the main supplier,and it is necessary to reserve production capacity through a deposit to ensure the progress of backup procurement.The results show that under the risk of emergencies,when there is a threshold below which the online market potential is lower,the manufacturer will not reconstruct its own supply chain,otherwise,the manufacturer will reconstruct the supply chain by reserving the capacity of backup procurement to backup suppliers and opening up online sales channels for products.The threshold is a function of the risk of emergencies,the cost of backup production,and the predetermined price per unit of capacity.Moreover,the interval for manufacturers to implement supply chain restructuring is enlarged with the increase of the risk of emergencies,and then reduced with the increase of procurement cost and capacity reservation price.A priori,overbooking always occurs when a manufacturer books capacity with a backup supplier.When the manufacturer implements supply chain reconfiguration,if the risk of emergencies outbreak is small,the cost of capacity reservation is higher than the expected cost of backup procurement,that is,the backup supplier gains additional benefits through the manufacturer's capacity overbooking;otherwise,the cost of capacity reservation is lower than the expected cost of backup procurement,that is,the manufacturer will not suffer losses due to capacity overbooking.

supply chain reconfigurationemergenciessupply disruptiondemand disruption

余乐安、王丹萍、曾能民

展开 >

四川大学商学院,四川 成都 610065

北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京 100029

哈尔滨工程大学经济管理学院,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001

大数据与商务智能技术工业和信息化部重点实验室(哈尔滨工程大学),黑龙江 哈尔滨 150001

展开 >

供应链重构 突发事件 供应中断 需求中断

国家社会科学基金重点项目

20AJY016

2024

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.938
ISSN:1003-207X
年,卷(期):2024.32(9)