摘要
日益增长的城市道路交通需求带来的交通拥堵和大气污染问题,已经成为近些年受到广泛关注、亟待解决的问题.本文以北京市通州区居民公交出行相关的调研数据为样本,在公交线路"异质性"假设的基础上,将轴辐式网络设计引入到城市公交线路优化问题中,验证居民出行距离与模拟电子云分布和双阶威布尔分布相吻合.提出宏观层面的公交总费用概念,构建轴辐式多级公交线路配置模型.测算不同级别公交线路的需求量和供给量,以及居民的优势出行距离,检验居民公交出行需求与公交系统提供的运力间的错配问题.研究发现:通州区轴线和辅线的居民出行需求量大于相应等级线路的公交供给量,存在供不应求的错配问题;支线居民公交出行需求量小于该等级的公交供给量,存在供过于求的错配问题.文章提出相应的对策建议,以期为交通运输部门为推进碳中和目标的实现,对降污减排和缓解交通拥堵等问题进行政策制定提供科学的理论依据.
Abstract
With the rapid development of urbanization in China and the formation of urban agglomeration scale,the problem of urban traffic congestion brought about by the increase in the number of motor vehicles is becom-ing more and more serious year by year.A large body of literature suggests that road traffic congestion is the main cause of increased carbon emissions and high air pollution in cities.Therefore,to achieve the"double carbon"goal,it is not only necessary to give play to the energy saving and pollution reduction effect of the transportation industry,but also to pay attention to the treatment of alleviating traffic congestion.In order to alleviate urban road traffic congestion,first of all,from the theoretical level,the local static congestion caused by the assumption of"homogeneity"of bus lines is described as the mismatch between supply and demand in economics,and on the basis of the assumption of"heterogeneity"of bus routes,the hub and spoke network design is introduced into the optimization problem of urban bus routes.Secondly,the article takes the survey data related to residents'bus travel in Tongzhou District as a sample,verifies that the travel distance of residents coincides with the simulated electronic cloud and the distribution of two-order Weibull,and incorporates factors such as travel time value,safety factor,and comfort factor into the total cost function required by residents to take public transportation,so as to construct the advantageous travel distance function of residents taking differ-ent levels of bus lines as a standard.Finally,the demand for buses at different levels is defined as the product of the average travel distance of the corresponding bus lines and their traffic volume,and the supply of bus lines at different levels is defined as the product of the total traffic volume of the bus system and the proportion of pas-sengers of the bus lines at this level,and on this basis,an hub and spoke multi-level bus line configuration model is constructed to test the mismatch between the bus travel needs of residents in Tongzhou District and the transportation capacity provided by the urban bus system.The results of the study show that the bus demand for the axis and auxiliary lines in Tongzhou District is much greater than the bus supply of the corresponding grade lines,and there is a mismatch between supply and demand;the demand for branch buses is smaller than the bus supply of this level,and there is a mismatch between oversupply and demand.The corresponding countermeasures are propased for the above problems,dynamically the mismatch is adjusted between supply and demand of dif-ferent levels of bus lines,resources are reconfigured,a balance is achieved between supply and demand,and the local static congestion problem of urban public transportation is alleviated,in order to provide a scientific theoretical basis for the transportation sector to promote the realization of carbon neutrality goals,reduce pollu-tion and reduce emissions,and alleviate traffic congestion.
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万方数据