Cross-Market Risk Contagion and External Shocks of China's Food Energy
In order to investigate the issue of food and energy security in China,a cross-market"food-energy-finance"three-sector system is constructed to study the risk contagion within the system and outside the system,by using DAG,CoVaR,network topology and other methods.Research shows that the risk sources of domestic food and energy have changed from the original international dominance to a"Dual Circulation"dual-wheel drive since the end of 2019.And the risk contagion center within the food-energy-financial system has changed from the international crude oil market to the international agricultural product market and the domestic financial market with the development of the epidemic,so does the intensity and direction.Among many external shocks,the monetary policy of quantitative easing in the United States and the fluctuation of international commodities are the main external factors affecting the security of China's food-energy-financial system.In accordance with the conclusions,this paper obtained provides a new basis for index selection in risk warning to forecast China's food and energy security.
food and energy securitycross-market risk contagionexternal risk shocksconditional value-at-risknetwork topology
万方数据
维普
