In order to investigate the issue of food and energy security in China,a cross-market"food-energy-finance"three-sector system is constructed to study the risk contagion within the system and outside the system,by using DAG,CoVaR,network topology and other methods.Research shows that the risk sources of domestic food and energy have changed from the original international dominance to a"Dual Circulation"dual-wheel drive since the end of 2019.And the risk contagion center within the food-energy-financial system has changed from the international crude oil market to the international agricultural product market and the domestic financial market with the development of the epidemic,so does the intensity and direction.Among many external shocks,the monetary policy of quantitative easing in the United States and the fluctuation of international commodities are the main external factors affecting the security of China's food-energy-financial system.In accordance with the conclusions,this paper obtained provides a new basis for index selection in risk warning to forecast China's food and energy security.
关键词
粮食能源安全/跨市场风险传染/外部风险冲击/条件风险价值/网络拓扑
Key words
food and energy security/cross-market risk contagion/external risk shocks/conditional value-at-risk/network topology
维普
万方数据