首页|考虑专家信任风险行为挖掘与动态管理的社会网络群体共识决策研究

考虑专家信任风险行为挖掘与动态管理的社会网络群体共识决策研究

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随着社会网络技术的发展,决策专家间的信任关系为群体共识决策研究带来了新的机遇和挑战。由于信任固有的风险性,专家在决策过程中可能存在被盲目信任或缺失应有信任的情况,进而产生影响决策的风险问题,导致达成科学可靠的共识更加困难。为此,本文依据专家行为挖掘,将社会网络群体共识决策中的信任风险与决策结果的科学可靠性相联系,提出考虑专家信任风险行为挖掘与动态管理的社会网络群体决策共识模型,以降低决策风险,提升决策结果的可信度与共识效率。首先,综合考虑社会网络与专家可信度,设计基于t-范数的专家风险行为挖掘、度量及动态管理机制;其次,构建专家综合影响力驱动的信息集结方法,以及共识度量与反馈调节机制;最后,通过蒙特卡罗模拟获取专家风险系数的最大/最小阈值以及群体风险水平阈值,论证所提模型的合理性与有效性,并将其应用于汽车企业与激光显示科技公司的合作研究中,以辅助实际决策,丰富了社会网络群体共识决策研究。
Research on Consensus of Social Network Group Decision Making Considering Experts'Trust Risk Behaviors Mining and Dynamic Management
With the development of social network technology,trust relationships among experts bring new opportunities and challenges to the consensus research of group decision making.Due to the inherent risk of trust,experts may be blindly trusted or lack due trust in decision-making process,which will cause risk issues affecting decision and make it more difficult to reach a scientific and reliable consensus.Therefore,based on experts'behavior mining,the trust risk in social network group decision making is linked with the scientificity and reliability of the decision result,and a consensus model is proposed for social network group decision mak-ing considering experts'trust risk behaviors mining and dynamic management to reduce the decision risk,improve the credibility of decision result and consensus efficiency.Firstly,based on social network and experts'credibility,the trust risk behaviors mining,measurement and dynamic management mechanism is designed.Secondly,the information aggregation driven by the comprehensive influence of experts,consensus measure and feedback adjustment mechanism are constructed.Finally,the maximum/minimum thresholds of experts'risk index and the threshold of group risk level are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation,the rationality and valid-ity of the proposed model are demonstrated,and it is applied to the cooperative research between automobile enterprises and laser display technology companies to assist actual decision-making and enrich the consensus research of social network group decision making.

social network analysisgroup decision makingtrust risk behaviorsMonte Carlo simulation

李梦琪、刘高峰、许叶军、刘霞、王慧敏

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河海大学商学院,江苏 南京 211100

天津大学管理与经济学部,天津 300072

南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,江苏 南京 210044

社会网络分析 群体决策 信任风险行为 蒙特卡罗模拟

2024

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.938
ISSN:1003-207X
年,卷(期):2024.32(11)