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属地管理原则下突发公共卫生事件物资调配的微分博弈模型

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应急物资调配是地方政府应对重大突发公共卫生事件的前提保障,由于疫情防控和物资调配压力不断升级,决策者面临选择与转换物资调配模式的难题,属地内部物资调配和统筹内外部省份物资调配是解决上述难题的两种主要模式。本文结合疾病传播率和突发公共卫生事件防控级别,针对属地内部调配和统筹内外部调配两种模式,分别构建动态按需供给的微分博弈模型。研究发现,当受助地固定物资需求大于临界值时,统筹内外部调配模式更具优势;当受助地固定物资需求小于临界值或外部省份援助成本大于临界值时,属地内部调配模式更具优势。灾区地方政府根据灾区固定物资需求量、属地内部调配物资比例、外部省份援助成本临界点等具体情境,选择最为合适的物资调配模式。最后,结合武汉新冠疫情和西安疫情小波峰物资调配实例,对两种调配模式的总效用进行单因素分析与双因素的交叉比较分析,为重大突发公共卫生事件的物资统筹调配和快速响应提供决策支持。
Research of Territorial Inner Principal on Material Dynamic Allocation for Sudden Public Health Events Based on Differential Games
Emergency materials allocation is the prerequisite guarantee for local governments to cope with major public health emergencies.Due to the escalating pressure of epidemic prevention and control and material alloca-tion,decision-makers face the problem of choosing and changing the mode of material allocation.Materials allocation within the territory and the coordination of materials allocation in internal and external provinces and cities are the two main modes to solve the above problems.In this paper,based on the disease transmission rate and the prevention and control level of public health emergencies,the differential game model of dynamic on-demand supply is constructed for two modes of internal allocation and coordinated internal and external alloca-tion.When the demand for fixed materials exceeds the critical value,coordinating internal and external alloca-tion is more advantageous.When the demand for fixed materials is less than the critical value or the cost of external provincial and municipal assistance is greater than the critical value,the internal allocation mode is advantageous.Local governments in disaster areas choose the most appropriate material allocation mode accord-ing to specific situations,such as the demand for fixed materials in disaster areas,the proportion of materials allocated within the territory,and the critical point of external provincial and municipal assistance costs.Finally,combined with the case study of material allocation in Wuhan and Xi'an,a cross-comparison analysis of single factor and double factor is conducted to analyze the total effectiveness of the two deployment modes to provide decision support for the overall allocation and rapid response of materials in significant public health emergencies.

territorial managementdifferential gameallocation of materialsemergency managementfeedback equilibrium

李天娇、刘德海

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东北财经大学管理科学与工程学院,辽宁 大连 116025

东北财经大学公共管理学院,辽宁 大连 116025

属地管理 微分博弈 物资调配 应急管理 反馈均衡

2024

中国管理科学
中国优选法统筹法与经济数学研究会 中科院科技政策与管理科学研究所

中国管理科学

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.938
ISSN:1003-207X
年,卷(期):2024.32(11)