Study on Customized Bus Choice Behavior Considering Individual Preference Heterogeneity
Demand-response strategies for customized buses(CBs)typically treat different passengers homogeneously,ignoring the heterogeneity among passengers in their choice preferences.To gain further insight into people's choice behavior in CBs and explore the influence of latent variables,this study combined the characteristics of CB operation and latent variables reflecting convenience,comfort,and reliability into a mixed logit model to form a hybrid choice model.A survey was conducted on 30 customized bus routes in Dalian to study the operational characteristics of CBs and to quantitatively analyze the impact of various attributes on CB choice behaviors using empirical data.The results show that CBs are more attractive to middle-aged and young women with middle-to-high incomes.Reliability and traditional variables such as travel time have an equally important impact on choice,and the utility of average cognitive reliability is equivalent to reducing travel time by 6.15 min.The probability of choosing CBs increases by 1.09 times for every increase in the perceived reliability evaluation level.The hybrid choice model has a higher goodness-of-fit than the traditional logit model,and the prediction results are more robust.Travelers have heterogeneous preferences for travel time,waiting time,seat availability on regular buses,discounts on CB fares,and detour rates.To ensure a stable full-load rate,considering heterogeneity,at least a 12％discount on fares is required to offset the perceived negative utility,due to 10％route detours,of approximately 90％of the travelers.Therefore,to provide multi-vehicle types and multimodal travel services,operators must determine a balance point between demand-responsive CB stops and route and fare adjustments.
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