首页|人工智能时代的中国产业链"延链补链"——基于制造业企业智能设备进口的微观证据

人工智能时代的中国产业链"延链补链"——基于制造业企业智能设备进口的微观证据

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当前全球价值链分工体系面临重构调整,通过智能化技术助力企业"延链补链"以确保产业链供应链安全稳定,是中国经济高质量发展的着力点.本文基于2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库的微观合并数据,实证分析了工业智能设备进口对中国制造业企业生产链长度的影响.结果表明,工业智能设备进口数量的增加会显著促进企业生产链长度的延长.机制分析发现,由于上游生产环节的资本密集程度相对下游更高,而下游生产环节的劳动密集程度相对上游更高,因而企业通过进口工业智能设备可以实现在更多产业链环节形成比较优势.一方面,工业智能设备可以推动"机器换人",即促进资本对部分劳动力的替代,更显著地降低上游生产环节的要素成本,使企业拓宽向上游的生产链长度;另一方面,工业智能设备可以推动"赋能于人",即促进劳动力边际产出的提升,更显著地降低下游生产环节的要素成本,使企业拓宽向下游的生产链长度.最后,本文从产业链关联的角度分析发现,工业智能设备进口可以通过产业链关联对上下游企业产生"涟漪效应";从产业集聚的角度分析发现,专业化集聚水平提升会进一步放大工业智能设备对企业生产链长度的促进效果;从应对断链危机的角度分析发现,寻求智能设备进口的替代国有助于企业在面临特定供应链断链危机时有效延长生产链长度.
On Extension of China's Industrial Chain in the Era of Artificial Intelligence:Evidence from Firms'Imports of Industrial Intelligent Equipment
Global value chains(GVCs)have now embarked on a new phase of restructuring,marked by a pronounced shift towards localization,regionalization,and diversification.The strategic utilization of automation technology to facilitate business expansion,guaranteeing the security and resilience of industrial and supply chains,holds promise as a potent avenue for driving high-quality development in China.Based on the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms and Customs Data from 2000 to 2013,this paper delves into the effects of importing industrial intelligent equipment on firms'span of stages in industrial chain and the mechanisms.The findings of this paper are as follows.First,imports of industrial intelligent equipment significantly increase firms'span of stages in industrial chain,indicating that application of intelligent equipment helps firms to expand their business along industrial chains.After addressing issues of reverse causality and selection bias,and conducting robustness checks,our findings remain.Second,the mechanism analysis reveals that since upstream production requires higher capital intensity while downstream production requires higher labor intensity,firms can create more comparative advantages by importing intelligent equipment.On the one hand,intelligent equipment can serve as a"labor substitute",enabling firms to expand their business to the upstream by reducing costs in upstream segments.On the other hand,intelligent equipment can"empower labor",enabling firms to expand their business to the downstream by reducing costs in downstream segments.Third,from the perspective of industrial chain linkage,a firm's import of intelligent equipment exerts a"spillover effect"on its upstream and downstream partners.From the perspective of agglomeration,specialized agglomeration can amplify the effects on expanding firms'span of stages.From the perspective of supply chain risks,import of intelligent equipment aids firms in swiftly adapting their supply chains in the face of supply chain disruptions.Our study suggests that further expanding imports of industrial intelligent equipment can effectively encourage firms to expand their business along industrial chains,offsetting the pressure of rising costs for factors such as labor,and thereby enhancing modernization of industrial chains and supply chains.Additionally,it is imperative to accelerate the process of intelligence adoption within key industries and leading firms,leveraging the amplifying effects of industrial chain linkage to trigger"ripple effects"and thereby strengthen resilience and competitiveness of overall industrial chains.Lastly,we should delve deeper into industrial agglomeration models,leveraging the"labor pool"and"knowledge spillover"effects to forge automated,intelligent,and agile industrial clusters.This will further bolster the effects of intelligent equipment and invigorate the extension and enhancement of industrial chains.

import of industrial intelligent equipmentspan of stages in industrial chainindustrial chain resilienceartificial intelligence

吕越、张昊天、高恺琳

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对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院、全球创新与治理研究院

清华大学五道口金融学院

对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

智能设备进口 生产链长度 产业链安全 人工智能

国家社会科学基金重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目国家自然科学基金面上项目

21&ZD0987207302571873031

2024

中国工业经济
中国社会科学院工业经济研究所

中国工业经济

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.932
ISSN:1006-480X
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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