Robots and Global Production Network Evolution:Based on Quantitative Structural Model
In the context of profound changes not seen in a century,the global production network is undergoing rapid restructuring.A correct understanding of the impact of various factors on production cooperation between countries is the foundation for effective economic policy.This paper focuses on the impact of industrial robots on the evolution of the global production network.Research results have significant implication for China to seize the opportunities of the new technological revolution and achieve the goal of becoming a trading powerhouse.The paper employs quantitative structural analysis to examine the impact of industrial robots application on the evolution of global production networks.The quantitative structure model incorporates elements related to industrial robots and the input-output links between countries,and distinguishes between intermediate goods and final goods trade.It illustrates how robots impact global production networks through cost,income and spillover channels.The paper establishes a comprehensive analytical framework for studying the effects of robots on global production networks,offering a novel perspective on related issues within the realm of global production networks.Based on parameters with data from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),the International Federation of Robotics(IFR),World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS),and American Time Use Survey(ATUS),this paper conducts the counterfactual analysis on a 50％decrease in the price of industrial robots.Firstly,from the perspective of the intensity of the global production network,the world value-added trade volume decreases,but the degree of vertical specialization increases.Secondly,in terms of structure,global production networks become more balanced,with larger economies experiencing smaller changes in the scale of value-added trade.Additionally,intraregional cooperation centered on the United States weakens,while intraregional cooperation centered on Germany and the mainland of China strengthens.Thirdly,the intensity of supply and demand network connections between China and regions outside the mainland of China increases.Fourthly,in the influence of the increasing application of industrial robots,spillover effects are the primary mechanism that affects the intensity of global production networks,while income effects are the primary channel that affects global production network structure.Finally,the increased application of industrial robots increases real wages in the world's economies,with an average increase of 1.73％.The finding that the industrial robots application contributes to an increase in real wages worldwide means that intelligent production will be the global trend,providing academic support for China's policy to actively promote intelligent manufacturing.Based on the conclusions regrading the changes in the strength and structure of the global production network,there are implications for both internal and external policies.Internally,there is need to continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform,ensuring a smooth domestic cycle,and effectively dealing with the potential risk of trade decline in the future.Externally,China can take the opportunity of the latest RCEP to promote the signing of high-level free trade agreements with other Asian countries,which will further consolidate and enhance China's position in the regional value chain within Southeast Asia.
industrial robotquantitative structural modelglobal production network strengthglobal production network structure
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