AI,Learning-By-Doing and Skill Premium:A Study Based on a Model of Endogenous Technological Change
The rapid development of artificial intelligence(AI)technology is leading a new wave of industrial revolution,and also significantly affecting the skill premiums of the labor force,which has attracted much attention.On one hand,the development of AI promotes the transformation and upgrading of production methods and gives rise to new industries,increasing the demand for skilled labor,which may raise the skill premium.On the other hand,with the popularization of AI and the learning in people's labor process,jobs that originally required highly specialized skills may be mastered by a wider range of people,which reduces the scarcity of skills,provides more development opportunities for low-skilled labor,and reduces the skill premium.This paper establishes a model of endogenous technological change,introduces labor skill heterogeneity,and divides technological change into two forms:the creation of new tasks and the automation of old tasks.It highlights the learning-by-doing effect of low-skilled labor to comprehensively examine the impact of AI development on the skill premium.Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation of this paper leads to the following insights.① In the short term,AI has the characteristic of increasing skill premiums.② In the long term,the learning-by-doing effect of low-skilled labor is a key factor in maintaining the stability of skill premiums.③ In the long term,the R&D efficiency of AI products can be divided into two types,which have opposite effects on skill premiums.When the R&D efficiency of job-replacing technology products increases,the demand for low-skilled labor decreases,leading to a significant increase in skill premiums;conversely,when the R&D efficiency of job-creating technology products increases,the effect is the opposite.④ Whether in the short or long term,increasing the proportion of high-skilled labor can effectively reduce skill premiums.This paper has several contributions.Firstly,the learning-by-doing effect of labor is introduced into the framework of the endogenous technological change model of AI,which provides a new perspective for explaining the economic impacts of technological progress in AI.Secondly,considering the learning-by-doing process,this paper analyzes the various impact paths of AI technology on the skill premium at different stages of development,which helps to understand the impact mechanism of AI development on the skill premium.Finally,a simulation analysis is conducted with Chinese data to quantitatively estimate the impact of the learning ability,the efficiency of the change of new jobs,and the supply of high-skilled labor on the skill premium,which provides policy insights to maintain the stability of the skill premium.
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