From"Vulnerability"to"Resilience":Tracing the Vulnerability and Resilience Deconstruction of China's Economic Growth at Risk
The unstable rebound in economic growth indicates that the long tail effect affecting China's economic recovery has not been eliminated,and the risks of economic growth cannot be ignored.In this context,in the framework of economic growth at risk,an in-depth analysis of the vulnerability of growth at risk and the deconstruction of its economic resilience is of great guiding significance for China to strengthen risk regulation and expectation management,innovate macroeconomic regulation policies,and thus achieve Chinese modernization.This paper achieves vulnerability tracing of growth at risk through time-varying contribution decomposition of risk sources.Furthermore,this paper constructs a categorized Markov regime-switching model for L-shaped contraction and U-shaped resistance,systematically deconstructing the economic resilience of growth at risk from multiple perspectives such as resilience structure,resistance capacity and recovery capability.Results of this paper show that:Firstly,growth at risk has a significant"event-driven"characteristic,and under extreme event shocks,the growth at risk shows a clear downward trend.In addition,there is a significant asymmetry in the tail risk of economic growth.When the risk of an economic downturn increases,the risk of economic upside also increases significantly.Secondly,the vulnerability tracing results of growth at risk indicate that the positive driving contribution of credit investment and local government debt is decreasing,and stock price fluctuations only play a significantly negative driving role during financial crises and stock market fluctuations.After entering a new stage of development,the driving force of housing price growth has reversed from an early positive value to a relatively negative value,while supply chain and consumption conditions have played a more positive role.Thirdly,the probability path of the transition of the categorized Markov system indicates that with the structural transformation of the domestic economy,the probability of L-shaped contraction will show a clear upward trend.When the economic system faces external risk shocks,the probability of U-shaped resistance will rapidly increase,and the economy will have strong resilience.This paper has the following marginal contributions.Firstly,by decomposing the time-varying contributions of the risk sources of growth at risk,it provides a reference for improving the risk monitoring and early warning system of China's economic growth.Secondly,based on the path simulation of L-shaped contraction and U-shaped resistance,this paper analyzes the essential logic of economic resilience from a theoretical perspective and broadens the research perspective in related fields.Finally,it estimates the parameter results of the categorized Markov regime-switching model,and systematically deconstructs the economic resilience of China's growth at risk,providing a new research approach for coping with risk shocks and exploring paths to enhance economic resilience in an uncertain environment.
growth at riskeconomic resilienceeconomic vulnerabilitycategorized Markov regime-switching model
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
