Artificial Intelligence,Occupational Structural Transformation and Service-oriented Manufacturing
Occupational structural transformation is a common pattern during the steady growth of GDP per capita in major economies worldwide.In recent years,there has been a decline in the employment share of production occupation and an increase in service occupation within the Chinese manufacturing industry,presenting a trend of occupational structural transformation with rapid development of service-oriented manufacturing.It is an important driving force and typical performance of the high-end,intelligent,and green development of the manufacturing industry.As a strategic general technology leading the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,artificial intelligence(AI)has become a fundamental force in accelerating the occupational structural transformation and service-oriented manufacturing development in China.This paper establishes a dynamic general equilibrium model with AI technology and occupational heterogeneity,showing the endogenous mechanism of occupational structural transformation.This paper finds that when AI technology is biased towards production occupation,and the elasticity of substitution between production occupation and service occupation is less than 1,then AI will drive the transformation of occupational structure from production to service within the manufacturing sector,increase the proportion of service-oriented manufacturing,improve relative labor productivity of manufacturing and stabilize the real output share of manufacturing.If AI has an increasing influence on service occupation,the occupation-biased gap of AI will be narrowed and the relative labor productivity of service will be improved,which will alleviate Baumol's cost disease to some extent.Promoting deeper integration of different occupations,intensifying R&D in AI technology and reducing labor mobility barriers between occupations can effectively accelerate the occupational structural transformation and industrial structural upgrading.This paper contributes to literature on AI and industrial structural transformation.This paper uses theoretical analysis and numerical simulation methods to show the theoretical mechanism by which AI affects occupational structural transformation and industrial structural transformation from a macroeconomic perspective,and puts forward policy implications on how to promote the service-oriented manufacturing development and accelerate the construction of modem industrial systems through AI innovation.First,we should devote more to supporting R&D in general AI technology,and comprehensively strengthen digital infrastructure construction.Second,we should continue to deepen the reform of labor marketization,and effectively relieve structural employment contradictions.Third,we should press ahead with cloud-based big data and AI initiatives,and promote deeper integration of occupations through digital transformation.Last,we should increase policy support for service-oriented manufacturing enterprises,and promote deeper integration of the digital economy and the real economy.
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