Robot Adoption and Outward Industrial Transfer in OFDI Patterns:A Discussion on the Impact of"Binary Paradox"in Industrial Chains
Ensuring the stability of the industrial chain forms the bedrock of China's pursuit of the"dual circulation"development paradigm.Confronted with mounting pressures of outward industrial transfer,China finds it imperative to explore fresh approaches and corroborating global evidence arising from the latest wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation.This paper builds a theoretical framework and provides evidence on the impact and pathways of robot adoption on outward industrial transfer,utilizing comprehensive country-industry data from 121 home countries and 186 host countries from 2000 to 2015.The empirical estimations show that robot adoption exerts a substantial suppressive effect on both the absolute and relative scale of outward industrial transfer.This suppression is driven by pulling forces,such as reduced relative wages,increased export substitution,and intensified game for benefits,as well as pushing forces,including enhanced industry capacity and heightened industrial competition.The pulling forces exhibit a more pronounced influence compared to the pushing forces.Robot adoption not only effectively limits outward industrial transfer but also strengthens its influence and reduces fragility,ultimately resolving the"binary paradox",emphasizing its vital role in ensuring industrial chain security and stability,and the advancement of the"dual circulation"development paradigm in China.At the theoretical level,this paper seeks to elucidate the mechanisms through which the application of robots influences the outward transfer of industries.It identifies both the pulling and pushing effects exerted by robotic adoption on industrial transfer.Using numerical simulations and counterfactual comparisons,this paper evaluates the relative strength of these forces.Additionally,it investigates the impact on the influence and vulnerability of the industrial chain,rethinking the"dual paradox"of industrial chains in the era of artificial intelligence(AI).At the policy level,this paper provides universal and practical conclusions regarding the relationship between AI and outward industrial transfer.It also assists China in rationally adjusting and optimizing its industrial policies,including actively implementing the"AI plus"action plan,offering crucial references for managing industrial chain risks and enhancing industrial chain resilience.Our findings have strong policy implications.In terms of fiscal support,this paper finds that robot application is an effective means to inhibit outward industrial transfer and helps balance industry influence and vulnerability.Therefore,it is essential to accelerate the integration of AI with both conventional and new industries,promote"AI plus"initiatives,and enhance the endogenous driving force of domestic circulation.In terms of the application strategy,this paper finds that robot adoption not only has a pulling effect,keeping the industrial chain within the home country,but also a pushing effect,promoting outward industrial transfer.Therefore,differentiated strategies should be adopted for enterprises in different regions to enhance the pulling effect and reduce the pushing effect.In terms of implementation,this paper finds that the inhibitory effect of robot adoption on outward industrial transfer increases the industrial chain's influence and reduces its vulnerability.Therefore,the government should encourage related industries to form clusters in specific regions,strengthen inter-enterprise cooperation,facilitate the aggregation and sharing of robot application technologies,and enhance the resilience of the economic"external cycle".
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