From Dual Control of Energy Consumption to Dual Control of Carbon Emissions under the Constraints of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals:Regulatory Tools,Effect Simulation and Policy Evaluation
With sustained economic development,the continuous rise in carbon dioxide emissions poses a significant global challenge.As a major carbon emitter,China aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.To better implement the goals,China proposed a policy shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions.However,there is currently a lack of quantitative analysis on the dual control of energy consumption and the dual control of carbon emissions.Critical questions remain about whether the shift can achieve the expected policy objectives and whether the comprehensive policy effects of dual control of carbon emissions are superior to those of dual control of energy consumption.This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the policy objectives of dual control of energy consumption and dual control of carbon emissions.It finds that both policies can effectively reduce CO2 emissions,lower energy consumption,promote the low-carbon transformation of energy consumption structure,and promote the rationalization of industrial structure,although they result in economic losses.The shift can further reduce carbon emissions,lower the carbon emission peak,effectively release the potential for clean energy consumption,increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption,and promote the development of the clean energy industry.However,this shift may not necessarily promote the rationalization of industrial structure,and its impact on economic growth remains uncertain.When the"dual carbon"goals surpass energy consumption goals to become tight constraints,the combined approach of dual control of energy consumption and dual control of carbon emissions will converge to dual control of carbon emissions.The regulatory tools and their combinations under the dual control of carbon emissions are key factors determining the socio-economic effects under the goals of dual control of carbon emissions.Different regulatory tools mainly produce differentiated economic costs of carbon reduction and varying degrees of promotion of low-carbon energy consumption.Through a multi-dimensional integrated evaluation method,this paper compares the comprehensive effects of the two policies and concludes that the overall policy effect of the shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions is superior.This paper provides insights into promoting the institutional shift from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions and the rational application of regulatory tools and their combinations under the dual control of carbon emissions.
dual control of energy consumptiondual control of carbon emissionscarbon emission reductiontransformation of the energy consumption structure
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