Objective To construct a clinical prediction nomogram model using the one-minute IOF osteoporosis risk test as an evaluation tool for osteoporosis.Methods The one-minute test result and the incidence of osteoporosis were collected from 470 patients in the osteoporotic clinic of our hospital.LASSO regression model and multifactor Logtisic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of osteoporosis,and the risk prediction model of osteoporosis was established.Results LASSO regression result showed that the characteristic variables of osteoporosis risk were when a parent had been diagnosed with osteoporosis or had a bone fracture after a light fall,one parent had a humpback,actual age was over 40 years old,whether a bone fracture occurred as an adult due to a light fall,and BMI ≤ 18.5 kg/m2.Multivariate Logtisic regression result showed that age(OR:1.12,95％CI:1.09-1.15),sex(OR:6.81,95％CI:3.95-12.1),whether adult fractures occurred due to light falls(OR:2.87,95％CI:1.82-4.26)and daily exercise less than 30 minutes(OR:1.59,95％CI:1.29-2.18)were associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis(P＜0.05).logtisic regression was used to construct a nomogram model,and the area under ROC curve for predicting osteoporosis was 0.856.The calibration curve indicates that the deviation correction curve of the nomogram model is in good agreement with the ideal curve.The clinical net return rate of the nomogram model is higher than that of the"full intervention"and"no intervention"schemes,suggesting that the nomogram model has good clinical applicability.Conclusion By using the one-minute test of osteoporosis risk provided by IOF,the risk prediction model constructed has good prediction effect,which can provide greater reference and help for clinicians.
关键词
骨质疏松/骨质疏松症风险1/min测试/风险预测模型
Key words
osteoporosis/one-minute osteoporosis risk test/risk prediction model
维普
万方数据