Prediction of Supply and Demand of Higher Education Students and Crisis Warning from 2024 to 2050 Under the Trend of Birthrate Decline:Analysis Based on the Data of China's Seventh National Population Census
Under the trend of birthrate decline,using queue factor population prediction method and constructing ARIMA time series model,three fertility plans of low,medium,and high are set to predict the supply and demand scale and gap situation of higher education students in China from 2024 to 2050.Research has found that the supply of higher education students exceeded demand between 2024 and 2037,forming a demand gap that sharply decreased from 5.1466 million to 169.8 thousand people;Between 2038 and 2050,there will be a trend of oversupply,resulting in a supply gap that has expanded from 2.7402 million to 11.7185 million,9.9678 million,and 8.2169 million,respectively.This indicates a historic turning point in the number of students around 2038,which may trigger a crisis in the quantity and quality of students,and create an imbalance in the higher education ecosystem.In this regard,multiple measures should be taken simultaneously to vigorously boost the social fertility level,continuously enhance the supply capacity of students,establish a monitoring and crisis warning mechanism for students,promote the adaptation of enrollment scale and ecological carrying capacity,and achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between the supply and demand of higher education students.
the trend of birthrate declinepopulation forecasthigher education student sourcesupply and demand relationshipstudent source crisis warning
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
